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Last Updated: December 6, 2024 7:59 AM EST • 2 min 49 sec read.
It’s not very often you get to feast your eyes on a best-on-best showdown. The best defensive team on home ice welcomes the most prolific road offense to Scotiabank Arena on Friday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+). 
The Toronto Maple Leafs allow a paltry 1.93 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena, while the Washington Capitals, vying for a franchise-record eighth consecutive road win, score 4.64 per game in enemy barns.
The Caps have averaged five in their three away games without Alexander Ovechkin, so Toronto, which is among the Stanley Cup odds favorites and has won nine of its last 10 home contests, must be as tight as Ebenezer Scrooge’s purse strings to upend the NHL’s second-best road team. 
Our Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction found the best value in player props for this encounter, with Tom Wilson taking the lead in the best bet. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Ovechkin is making significant strides, returning to the ice just 17 days after breaking his left fibula. The expeditious nature of his healing and regeneration more closely resembles the Wolverine than a mere mortal.
Come to think of it, they have similar hair, too.
In their superhero’s absence, more of an onus is placed on Tom Wilson to perform at a higher level.
He has done exactly that, scoring three goals in the last four after a 12-game dry patch. Wilson has also increased his shot output, firing at least three in two of the last four games. Wilson averaged 2.75 shots in those four contests. 
While those numbers don’t exactly pop off the page or drop a jaw like Ovechkin’s lizard-like regeneration, Wilson usually saves his best for the Maple Leafs.
He fired six shots on Joseph Woll on Nov. 13 and has at least three shots on goal in a staggering seven straight versus the Buds. In that stretch, Wilson averaged 4.14 shots per game. 
He’s also playing on the top line and first power-play unit. And while the Maple Leafs have the league’s second-best defensive record, they allow 28.3 shots per game on home ice, tied for 16th with the Vancouver Canucks. 
The plus-money odds add an extra layer of allure, and a winning $10 bet will profit $13. 
NHL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -106 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.46%
Auston Matthews is hockey’s best goalscorer, especially when he gets on a streak. I backed him to score against Nashville Wednesday, and he did one better, lighting the lamp twice. That made it three goals in the last two games.
And he’s usually at his lethal best against the Capitals, scoring five goals in the last five games against them. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.43. 
Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%
Like Matthews, Nylander salivates at the thought of playing Washington. He has five goals in the last six games against the Caps, and he’s netted two in the previous three contests, two against Nashville and one against Chicago. 
Plus, Washington has allowed nine goals in their last two road contests. A winning $10 bet will profit $13. 
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