Gilbert's prediction: The Capitals and Hurricanes continue playing a defense-forward, low-event brand of hockey in Game 4 on Monday, May 12.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
No game between the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes in this series has seen more than four total goals scored.
My Capitals vs. Hurricanes predictions expect more of the same as the teams play it tight again tonight.
I explain why with my best NHL picks on Monday, May 12.
The Carolina Hurricanes defended home ice on Saturday to move to 35-9-1 at the Lenovo Center this season. They’re once again huge home favorites at -250.
Carolina deserves to be favored once again, but the price is simply too high.
I’d take the Washington Capitals to win purely from a value perspective.
My Capitals vs Hurricanes pick: Under 5.5 (-120 at Sports Interaction)
The Capitals and Hurricanes have been throwing it back this series with some low-event, tight-checking hockey. The Canes held the Capitals to 14 shots on goal in Game 1 before Washington got up to 21 SOG in the last two contests.
Carolina is happy to dump the puck, forecheck, and take shot attempts from generally anywhere on the ice. The Canes are one of the best-structured teams in the playoffs in that sense, and they’ve played their game to a 6-2 postseason record thus far.
Washington has also settled into a tight-checking game with limited scoring chances on either side.
And when there have been scoring chances, the goaltenders have stood tall to deny them. Logan Thompson and Frederik Andersen have the two highest save percentages in the playoffs at .922 and .940, respectively.
There hasn’t been much open ice in this series and I expect that to continue for another low-scoring game on Monday night.
Under 5.5
Capitals moneyline
Alex Ovechkin 3+ shots on goal
The Capitals shouldn’t be this big of underdogs in a game like this. They were thoroughly outplayed in Game 1, but they’ve improved as the series has moved along. The Caps had just 25.48% of the expected goals share at 5-on-5 in Game 1, improving to 43.49% in Game 2 and 58.17% in Game 3.
Alex Ovechkin has also seen increases in his shot attempts and shots on goal. He had one shot attempt in Game 1 before firing 13 shot attempts (seven on goal) in the last two contests.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Washington Capitals have covered the Puck Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+15.80 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Hurricanes.
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Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan’s hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.
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