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NBA Tip-off
Last Updated: October 22, 2024 12:25 PM EDT • 3 min 6 sec read.
The Washington Capitals take their 3-1 record to Wells Fargo Center for a Metropolitan showdown against the 1-3-1 Philadelphia Flyers.
The Flyers played the Capitals tight last season despite losing two of three. There should be a William Penn-size asterisk placed above the Capitals’ second win, though, as the Flyers pulled netminder Sam Ersson at 1-1 out of necessity, requiring a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. 
So, for the sake of argument, I’m scratching that gimme result from the ledger. Excluding that result, the Flyers have won three of six against the Capitals since the start of 2022-23. 
While neither team is expected to ascend the Stanley Cup odds table, and despite the Caps being noticeably superior to start the season, my Capitals vs. Flyers prediction expects Philly to earn its first home win.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -115 via Betway | Implied probability: 53.49%
Terms and conditions apply.
At first glance, you might be more shocked than a conductor during a lightning storm to learn that Philadelphia is the marginal favorite entering Tuesday’s encounter. 
However, there is reason to believe the Flyers, who have lost four in a row, will snap their losing skid and earn their first home victory. 
Like winter, a Capitals’ regression is forthcoming. Whether it happens tonight is the million-dollar question.
The Caps are tied with the Calgary Flames for the third-most goals per game (4) and have the most goals per 60 minutes (4.16). Those gaudy numbers are thanks to an NHL-best 14.77 shooting percentage. 
However, Washington has the fourth-fewest expected goals (9.14) and the third-best goals above expected (3.86). Basically, the Caps have been fortunate, scoring at a disproportionate rate to what the analytics suggest.
The exact opposite is true defensively, where the Caps have mostly played well in their own end, allowing the second-fewest expected goals against (7.37).
Yet, they have conceded the 10th most goals against per game (3.5) and have the sixth-worst goals against above expected (2.63).
That’s due to Logan Thompson and Charlie Lingren’s inadequate play to kick off the season. While a tiny sample size, neither netminder in their two starts has a save percentage above .893. 
Expect a revved up Philadelphia team to fly out of the tunnel tonight after losing 3-0 to the Vancouver Canucks in its home opener on Saturday.
Only the Flyers, Nashville Predators, and San Jose Sharks haven’t won a home contest, but let’s give Philadelphia some grace considering they’ve played just one at the Wells Fargo Center.  
While nobody will convince me that the Flyers are a playoff-caliber team, I expect some positive regression.
They have the second-worst goals against above expected (6.55), the fourth-worst goals differential above expected (-8.37) despite boasting the seventh-best expected goals against (9.45).
Led down by a lack of cutting edge and ruthlessness in front of the goal, the Flyers have the fourth-worst shooting percentage (5.77). That has translated to a share of the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.4).
I’m banking on Tuesday’s game being a letdown spot for the Caps in a quasi must-win home game for the Flyers, who’ve played their division rivals tough recently. A winning $10 bet profits $8.70.
NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%
There’s more value in this prop than shopping at Costco. The Flyers aren’t exactly watertight defensively, and Wilson is coming off a three-point performance against New Jersey. 
Wilson is second in team scoring with six points in four games, notching at least one each contest. He’ll be on the first power play unit with Alexander Ovechkin and should have ample opportunity to extend his point streak to four games. 
A $10 winning bet profits $10. 
Capitals-Flyers predictions made Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.

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