Sam Montembeault's rough outing against the Golden Knights was an outlier as the netminder has performed admirably all season and should have an easier time navigating a much weaker offensive attack from Utah.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The Montreal Canadiens host the Utah Hockey Club at the Bell Centre on Tuesday, November 26, and both teams have struggled to score consistently leading into the tilt.
It’s the final leg of a four-game road trip for Utah, and our top Hockey Club vs. Canadiens predictions are calling for another low-scoring game in Montreal tonight.
Read on for my NHL picks ahead of tonight’s puck drop at 7 p.m. ET on TSN2.
My Canadiens pick
Under 6.5 (-130 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
The Montreal Canadiens and Utah Hockey Club have both been playing to the Under, with the Habs going Under the number in six of their past nine, and the Club on a 2-5-2 run.
Utah is 17th in goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (2.35), and Montreal checks just below with a 19th-ranked 2.33. Additionally, the underlying numbers aren’t overly encouraging for either offense. The Canadiens have generated a 19th-ranked 2.43 expected goals per 60, and the Club is at a 13th-ranked 2.54.
The Club has also scored two goals or fewer in five of their past seven, while the Habs have been held to two or fewer in six of 11.
I also expect improved play from Montreal No. 1 Sam Montembeault. Before allowing a six-spot to the Vegas Golden Knights last time out on Saturday, he turned away 80 of 83 shots for a .954 save percentage and 1.01 GAA across his prior three starts.
Utah has also received high-end goaltending from Karel Vejmelka all season. He sports an impressive .926 SV%, 2.30 GAA, and 0.90 goals saved above average per 60.
Goals are going to be few and far between tonight at the Bell Centre.
Under 6.5
Dylan Guenther Over 2.5 shots
Michael Kesselring Over 1.5 shots
Montreal has allowed the eighth-most shots per game (30.1) and has been caved in with a 28th-ranked 45.1 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, so this is a good matchup for Utah to pile up shots on goal. The Habs have also allowed the fourth-most shots per game to opposing wingers and the 10th-most to blueliners.
Club winger Dylan Guenther has recorded three or more shots in 11 of 21 games this season, but he’s failed to go Over this number in three straight because he’s turned his 17 attempts into just five shots. Look for Guenther to have better shooting efficiency tonight.
Utah defenseman Michael Kesselring has also emerged as a consistent shooter with two or more in six of his past eight games. He’s skating with the No. 2 power-play unit, and Kesselring sports a rock-solid 54.2 CF% at 5-on-5.
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The Montreal Canadiens have gone Under the number in six of their past nine games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Utah Hockey Club.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
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