With both Montreal and Dallas flexing elite defenses down the stretch, Todd Cordell expects goals to be at a premium for tonight's showdown at the American Airlines Center.
NHL
The Montreal Canadiens will travel to Texas to take on the Dallas Stars tonight.
My Canadiens vs. Stars predictions see the second and final matchup of the regular season playing out similarly to the first, with another low-scoring game in the cards.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for Thursday, January 16.
My Canadiens pick
Under 6 (-115 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
The Montreal Canadiens have really tightened up their defensive game. Despite playing eight of the past 10 on the road and facing almost exclusively playoff-bound teams, they have given up very few scoring chances.
The Canadiens have allowed just 2.22 goals per game over their last nine and have held opponents to fewer than 30 shots in seven of eight. Taking things a step further, they’ve only given up more than 26 shots twice in that span.
Even with their offense taking off, the Habs have found themselves in plenty of low total games, and that trend should continue against the Dallas Stars.
The Stars have consistently played in low-scoring games all season long. They own a 12-25-6 O/U record, which has only been further exaggerated by playing in just one Over spanning the past 10 games.
One reason Dallas has been so stingy is its penalty kill. Over the past 10 games, they’ve allowed just three power-play goals while posting fantastic shot suppression metrics. Montreal’s power play has also cooled off of late, finding the back of the net in only three of the past 10 games.
These teams met just a few days ago and combined for just two goals inside 65 minutes of hockey. While we may not see the two sides suppress goals to that extent, there once again appears to be value on the Under.
Under 6
Jamie Benn Under 2.5 shots
Thomas Harley Under 0.5 points
Jamie Benn has averaged just 3.5 shot attempts per game, a low volume that makes it quite difficult to generate three shots on any given night. The Stars captain has recorded 3+ shots in just 23% of his games this season and failed to reach that mark the last time these two teams met.
Thomas Harley has failed to hit the scoresheet in 19 of his past 30 games (64%) and has recorded points in back-to-back outings only once in that span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of BET99
Jamie Benn has failed to record three shots in three of the past four games against Montreal. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Stars.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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