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Last Updated: November 2, 2024 12:02 PM EDT • 2 min 43 sec read.
Two Eastern Conference bottom-dwellers collide on Saturday at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh when the 4-7-1 Pittsburgh Penguins host the 4-6-1 Montreal Canadiens (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network). 
While neither team is a Stanley Cup odds hopeful, much more was expected from the Pens after just missing out on last season’s playoffs. Pittsburgh has won four straight against Montreal and enters the game as -180 favorites despite losing six of its previous seven contests. 
The Canadiens haven’t been much better while dropping six of their last eight, including a 6-3 setback at home to the Pens.
Finding a value play on the puck line or moneyline for this encounter is more challenging than locating a pot of gold at the end of a faint rainbow. So our Canadiens vs. Penguins prediction focuses on the Over/Under and a Cole Caufield player prop.  
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -125 via Betway | Implied probability: 55.56%
Terms and conditions apply.
Saturday’s tilt in Pittsburgh is a prime Over candidate. The two teams combined for nine goals in Montreal on Oct. 14, and four of the last seven clashes between the clubs have featured at least seven markers. 
The Over has hit during four of Pittsburgh’s previous six games, while six consecutive Habs’ affairs have ended with at least seven goals, averaging 8.17 per contest.  
The Pens’ defense fails both the statistical vetting and eye tests. Disengaged as a collective, the Penguins allow the third-most goals against per game (four) and the second-most against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.62). They also give up the most expected goals against (32.57).
It gets worse for the Penguins, whose goaltenders aren’t bailing them out. They allow the seventh-most goals against above expected (3.43). 
The Habs are even worse in their own zone, allowing the most goals per game (4.18) and goals against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (4.21). Like Pittsburgh, Montreal concedes a ton of high-danger opportunities, allowing the second-most expected goals against (30.46).
Both teams boast enough offensive prowess to capitalize against inadequate defenses. Pittsburgh has been producing the most expected goals (30.99) in the NHL, and Montreal features one of the hottest goal scorers. 
A winning $10 bet will yield an $8 profit. 
NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +165 via Betway | Implied probability: 37.74%
Caufield is hotter than the hood of a car on a Las Vegas summer day.
With 10 goals in 11 games, the 23-year-old is tied for the league lead alongside Nico Hischier, and he’s among the Rocket Richard Trophy odds front-runners. He’s scored a goal in each of Montreal’s last four contests, and Caufield has also registered six in his last six outings. The winger failed to light the lamp in just three of 11 games.
His prolific scoring streak comes thanks to an astronomically high 31.3 shooting percentage. While regression is almost certainly coming, I’m riding the hot hand against a Pens defense that allows the third-most goals per game (four).  
A winning $10 bet will profit $16.50. 
Canadiens-Penguins predictions made Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

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