Auston Matthews loves opening nights and has excelled against the Habs throughout his career. He will keep both trains running for the Maple Leafs tonight as we like his anytime goal market.
NHL
The Toronto Maple Leafs begin life after Mitch Marner tonight in an Original Six matchup against the Montreal Canadiens.
It feels like the books are down on Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring prowess without his sidekick in town. However, I won’t be making that same mistake tonight with my Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs predictions, as I make an Auston Matthews anytime goal my best bet.
Find out why with my free NHL picks for this season-opening clash on Wednesday, October 8.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Best bet: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+100)
Auston Matthews had an injury-plagued 2024-25 campaign, which saw him score a career-low 31 goals. On top of that, the three-time Rocket winner lost his playmaking wing mate in Mitch Marner to free agency.
It appears the books are not as bullish on Matthews’ goal market because of these factors, but at even money, there’s still great value in backing the former 69-goal scorer — especially when considering his track record in season openers.
Throughout Matthews’ career, he’s scored 12 goals across nine season openers, including a four-goal performance in his NHL debut.
That wasn’t his only multi-goal season-opening game. Two years ago, he scored a hat-trick against the Montreal Canadiens in a high-scoring back-and-forth affair.
Additionally, Matthews has always had success against the Habs, with 28 goals in 34 career games, including six goals in his last seven contests against their Original Six rival.
As for Montreal, this is a much-improved team from a season ago. However, the Habs still finished with a minus-20 goal differential, allowing 3.18 goals per game, and will be deploying the same goaltending tandem that finished 22nd in the league last season in goals allowed.
The Leafs will be a different-looking team when they take the ice tonight, but I still expect Matthews to be a top player, and at +100, he’s a worthy wager for an anytime goal. Plus, if not him, then who else, really?
I’ll continue to pound the Matthews market and take the Over on his 3.5 shots prop. He’s averaged 4.03 shots per game throughout his career, and is averaging 4.1 per contest in his last 10 against the Habs.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll take Matthews’ new playmaking linemate, Matias Maccelli, to get an assist.
Maccelli is paying good odds on this market, and he’s known as a pure passer who topped the 40 assists mark once before. Now he’s saddled up next to the best sniper in the game who can finish on those dishes.
The Maple Leafs are 8-2 on the moneyline in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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