Our NHL expert expects some statistical corrections in Calgary en route to an Under tonight.
NHL
The 5-2 Montreal Canadiens hit Scotiabank Saddledome to take on the 1-6 Calgary Flames on Wednesday, October 22.
My top Canadiens vs. Flames predictions and NHL picks are calling for Montreal winning a low-scoring game tonight.
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Canadiens vs Flames Best bet: Under 5.5 (+110)
The Calgary Flames have scored the fewest goals per game (1.57) and have the lowest team-shooting percentage at 5-on-5 in the league.
Typically, I’d be looking for positive regression from the Calgary lineup, but a quick peek at the cast of characters jumping the boards shouldn’t instill confidence in an offensive breakout.
The key for Calgary will be eking out low-scoring wins and leaning on solid goaltending.
No. 1 Dustin Wolf is coming off his best home start of the season after posting an elite .921 save percentage and 2.33 GAA at the Scotiabank Saddledome last year, and I’m expecting him to turn in another solid showing tonight.
Turning to the Montreal Canadiens, their 5-2 start is in large part because of a high-powered offensive attack that’s averaged the fifth-most goals per game (3.57). I’m just not anticipating the Habs maintaining a third-ranked 12.1 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 for much longer, and especially because they rank 21st in expected goals per 60 minutes (2.37).
The Flames can’t score, and the Canadiens can. It’s as simple as that.
Montreal has a deeper lineup up front and on the blue line, and while I am expecting Wolf to play well, Habs No. 1 Sam Montembeault has his own splash of statistical correction coming.
Montembeault posted a respectable .901 save percentage and 2.82 GAA with a fourth-ranked 29.62 goals saved above expected across 62 games last season, so his respective .857, 3.26, and -4.29 marks through his first four starts are set to improve.
Turning to Montreal captain Nick Suzuki, he’s picked up an assist in five of seven games this season for nine total while centering the top line and No. 1 power-play unit. I also value his long-time chemistry with linemates Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.
The trio have clicked for 5.26 goals per 60 minutes dating back to the beginning of last season, after all.
The Flames have only hit the 1P Over in 33 of their last 84 games (-33.05 Units / -31% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Flames.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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