Caufield couldn't find the scoresheet in Montreal's last outing, but he and Suzuki will link up together against the Capitals.
NHL
The Montreal Canadiens are playing their best hockey of the season, sporting a 5-3-1 record over their last nine games.
They’ll look to keep the ball rolling Saturday night against a fierce Washington Capitals team continuing to chug along even without its captain.
My Capitals vs. Canadiens predictions see the home team’s star duo, Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, capitalizing offensively. Let’s break things down further with my NHL picks for December 7.
My Canadiens pick
Cole Caufield Over 0.5 points (-140 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
Cole Caufield has quietly had a very productive start to the season. The 23-year-old winger is on pace for 73 points and hitting the scoresheet on a very consistent basis.
Caufield has recorded at least one point in 65% of his games, including seven of the last nine overall.
He’s meshed very nicely with Nick Suzuki and Alex Newhook on the Montreal Canadiens’ new-look top line. That trio has helped the them control 66.45% of the shot attempts, 65% of the scoring chances, and 60% of the expected goal share.
Caufield’s line could be in for another good night against the Washington Capitals. Although they’re a strong team, their defensive metrics have really tailed off of late.
The Capitals rank 28th in expected goals against at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games, and they’ve given up a lot of good looks and relied heavily on their goaltenders to mask their blemishes.
That will likely be the case again in the latter half of a road back-to-back, at least when going up against this dominant Caufield line.
Caufield also stands a strong chance of making some noise on the power play. The Capitals rank Bottom 10 in shot suppression and expected goals against on the penalty kill over the last 10 games. They’ve also dealt with some discipline issues, spending more time shorthanded than all but five teams.
With Patrik Laine’s booming shot now featured on the power play, Caufield should have some extra time and space to work with when he touches the puck.
Cole Caufield Over 0.5 points
Nick Suzuki Over 0.5 points
Over 5.5
Caufield and Suzuki go together like buttery popcorn and the movie theatre. You can’t have one without the other.
Last season, Caufield found the scoresheet in 65% of his games, while Suzuki came in at 63%. This year, Caufield remains at 65%, with Suzuki right behind him at 62%. It’s not a coincidence their point rates are nearly identical.
They have such good chemistry and share the ice so frequently it’s difficult for one to produce and not the other.
I like the correlation that comes with a watered-down Over. Washington leads the NHL in goal scoring, averaging a whopping 4.04 per game. It can fill the net even without Alex Ovechkin and may need to do so to keep up with Caufield, Suzuki, Laine, and the Canadiens.
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Odds courtesy of BET99
Cole Caufield has recorded a point in six of his last nine home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Capitals.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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