With first place in Group A on the line, Eric Rosaales believes we are in for a tight-checking, low-scoring affair between two World Junior powerhouses.
It likely wasn’t how either team envisioned it, but in the end, it’s still Canada vs USA at the World Junior Hockey Championships, with the top spot in Group A on the line on New Year’s Eve.
With Canada’s inability to generate offense, my Canada vs. USA predictions believe their best chance in this rivalry is to keep things tight-checking — and why we’re targeting the total.
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of 12-31.
My best bet: Under 6.5 goals (+100 at bet365)
It wasn’t pretty, but after a major upset loss to Latvia, Canada got the bounce-back win they needed with a 3-0 win over Germany.
That score isn’t close to being indicative of the game, as Canada clung to a 1-0 lead with five minutes to go in the third period.
A goal by Caden Price gave the Canadians the breathing room it needed, the first even-strength goal they had scored in over 120 minutes of game action against Latvia and Germany — two nations Canada was expected to pummel.
Fortunately, what they do have is a hot goalie, as Carter George registered his second consecutive shutout of the tournament. After blanking Finland in the opener, he backstopped Canada with 25 saves, stopping all 66 shots he’s faced so far in Ottawa.
The United States find themselves playing for first in Group A instead of already having it clinched, as they were upset by Finland 4-3 in overtime Sunday night.
But while Canada shares an identical 2-0-1 record with them, it’s the US playing more like the team with expectations of winning a gold medal.
The Americans are the highest-scoring team in the group and the only team that’s hit double-figure goals with 18. They are third overall behind Czechia (23) and Sweden (20) who are lighting it up in Group B.
While Canada mustered just five goals over two games against Latvia and Germany, the Americans peppered them with 15 goals in a pair of blowout wins.
The United States has been susceptible to goals at their end of the ice as well. The nine allowed are the most of any team in contention.
They didn’t meet last year, when the Americans took home the title, as Canada was bounced in its first playoff game by Czechia.
In the last two meetings, the winner has gone on to take the title: USA defeated Canada 2-0 in the gold medal game in 2021, while Canada dumped the US 6-2 in 2023 en route to the gold in Halifax.
Canada has not looked great in this tournament, and its inability to score goals might eventually cost them as they go up against the defending champions.
It won’t be a masterpiece, but keeping it close and tight-checking will be Canada’s best play.
Under 6.5
Carey Terrance any time goal
Gabe Perreault and James Hagens are the Americans’ leading scorers in the tournament, including two goals apiece, but neither of them have lit the lamp since scoring their goals in the 10-4 blowout of Germany.
So instead, we’ll take a risk and some better juice with Carey Terrance, the 2nd round pick of the Anaheim Ducks in the 2023 NHL Draft.
The Erie Otters’ product had a goal last game against Finland and is one of only two USA players to have scored in multiple games in this tournament (along with Brodie Ziemer).
Canada has allowed a tournament-low three goals so far at the WJHC.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.
Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.
When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.
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