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By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
It’s Canada vs USA for all the marbles at the 4 Nations Faceoff. The Championship game between the two international rivals will be played Thursday night at TD Garden, with puck drop slated for 8pm ET (ESPN, Sportsnet).
The latest Canada vs USA odds price the two teams evenly after the Americans initially opened as a favorite. This is a rematch from the round robin in which the US won 3-1 in a fight-fueled affair.
Here is our Canada vs USA prediction for the 4 Nations Final, along with updated betting odds and how to watch.
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Whichever team wins this game, I don’t expect either side to light the lamp often. It all starts with American goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who has posted a .957 save percentage (SV%) in the tournament, stopping 45 of 47 shots.
In their previous 3-1 win, Team USA controlled play with a 53.3 Corsi For percentage (CF%), climbing to 56.4 CF% when adjusted for score and venue. Canada did create more expected goals at 5-on-5 (2.51 vs 1.38), but USA won the overall battle (4.05 vs 3.98).
The advanced metrics are important here because the Americans have shown they can dictate the game flow and slow down the Canadian offense. The last thing Mike Sullivan’s squad wants is to get into a high-scoring track meet with a team featuring Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon.
On the Canadian side, Cale Makar’s return is massive for a team with some shaky goaltending. Jordan Binnington has stopped 24 of 25 high-danger shots in the tournament (.960 SV%), but his .897 save percentage in the tournament has many Canadians worried.
Canada is the only team that's used the same goaltender throughout the #4Nations Face-Off.
Should Jordan Binnington get the nod again in the Championship Game? pic.twitter.com/z0wFhRzfp1
The TD Garden’s hostile environment may be viewed as intimidating, but keep in mind that Binnington won his only Stanley Cup here. The Blues’ netminder turned away 32 of 33 shots against the Bruins in 2019 in a do-or-die Game 7. He’s not the type of goalie to crumble under the pressure.
It’s easy to hop on the public side and cheer for goals (who wants to root for low-scoring anyway), but the smart money is on the Under. No player on either team is going to want to take risks with the stage this bright.
The last time Canada faced USA in best-on-best pre-4 Nations, the Canadians won 4-2 at the 2016 World Cup. Before that, it was Canada winning 1-0 at the 2014 Olympics. And of course, the game that everyone remembers, the 3-2 win for Canada at the 2010 Olympics Gold Medal game.
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Odds as of February 19, 2025, at ESPN Sportsbook. Register with the ESPN Bet promo code to bet on Canada vs USA. Bettors who can’t access ESPN Bet should check out Kalshi trading to wager on the Final.
The latest odds for Canada vs USA at 4 Nations show the two teams as equal -110 favorites. This means they both have equal implied probability. This is certainly notable considering the game opened with Americans favored at -115 and Canada the -105 underdogs.
Money has come in on Canada, and it’s not hard to see why. They looked dominant for the vast majority of their last round-robin game (5-3 W vs Finland). The USA on the other hand, suffered their first defeat of the tournament last time out (3-2 L to Sweden).
Another reason for the line move towards Canada is the injuries to the Americans. USA’s top-pairing defenseman Charlie McAvoy is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery for a shoulder infection and AC joint injury. The physical blueliner played a key role in neutralizing McDavid in the first meeting.
A statement from #NHLBruins Head Team Physician Dr. Peter Asnis: pic.twitter.com/TLYhngAkZG
Auston Matthews, meanwhile, missed the final round-robin game with upper-body soreness but is expected to play after practicing Wednesday. The Tkachuk brothers are also both reportedly dealing with injuries but are expected to suit up on Thursday.
The over/under for Canada vs USA is offered at 5.5, with heavy -135 juice favoring the Under. When the total is already low and sportsbooks are making you pay notable juice to go Under, that’s a clear sign they expect a low-scoring game. For reference, the first meeting had an over/under of 6.5.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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