The Canadians are understandably the favored team in Friday's Olympic hockey showdown against the United States, but there's no value at -210. Instead, our betting picks are focusing on the Over and considering the US at +173 on the moneyline.
Canada and the United States will renew their rivalry Friday night on the ice in Beijing as both nations look to build on convincing wins in Thursday’s openers. The Canadians took care of Germany 5-1 while the Americans beat up on China 8-0.
With Canada coming into the matchup as the favorite, can the younger and less-experienced American side drum up an upset, or do the Canadians have the biggest advantage after beating a stronger opponent in the opener? Find out in our free picks and predictions for Canada vs. USA.
Odds as of February 10, 2022.
Canada opened as -210 favorites on the moneyline after closing as -230 favorites vs. Germany. The total sits at 5.5 after both teams hit the Over in their first group-stage game.
Predictions made on 2/10/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
• Location: Wukesong Sports Centre, Beijing, CHN
• Date: Friday, February 11, 2022
• Puck drop: 11:10 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
The Canadians stormed out of the gates versus Germany in their opener on Thursday morning, scoring three goals in the game’s first 11 minutes. The favorites used a ton of physicality against the smaller German team and dominated play when they weren’t serving penalties. This team rolled four lines throughout the entire game and showed elite puck skills on the top line with Mason McTavish while the bottom two lines finished with a total of nine points. This is a Canadian roster that is a great mix of NHL veterans, KHL professionals, and young first-round talent. They face an American team that is riding high after an 8-0 win over the Chinese.
One thing the US lacks is experience. The Americans come into the tournament with an average age of 25.1 years old, which is their youngest lineup since 1994. They did fire 55 shots on net versus China but also gave up 29 shots to the tournament’s worst roster. Will the American’s come into this game riding some false confidence after the youngsters’ blowout win?
We already like the Canadians in this matchup as their experience and maturity are a huge advantage, but is this -210 price tag a little long?
Looking at the pre-tournament outright odds, we see that Canada was the No. 4 betting favorite at +700 while the USA sat in eighth at +1,600. Germany was next at ninth but at +2,000, they’re in a different tier than the Americans. So why are we getting a similar ML price on the US (+173) as we were with Germany, who closed as +190 underdogs versus Canada? It’s safe to say that when the United States faces Germany, they’ll be more than 15-point favorites.
Another angle that has us scared to lay the juice with the favorites can be found in net. Eddie Pasquale got the win versus Germany, and is the team’s best option, but we doubt the coaching staff goes back to him in the second game as every team advances to the next round. That would mean Matt Tomkins would likely draw the start and there is an argument to be had that he’s the worst of the three options in net for the Canucks. Tomkins currently plays in Sweden’s top league (SHL) and although he is having a good season, he is not Pasquale who is the team’s No. 1 netminder and one of the best goalies in the KHL.
The Canadians also took four penalties in their match with Germany and also gave up a 5-on-3. The Americans might have the advantage in the speed department with the younger legs, as well. The Canadians did not play a perfect game against Germany and the United States won’t be as easy to push around.
We’re expecting this game to be closer than the Canada -210 ML is predicting and are jumping on the underdogs mainly because of the price.
Prediction: USA moneyline (+173)
We saw totals drop heavily after the opening round of games, which saw just four total goals in the opening two contests. However, both the Canadians and Americans hit the Over themselves in their respective openers. The Canadians scored five of their six goals at even strength and added another on the power play. They also took some weak penalties, which Germany failed to take advantage of but the Americans possibly could.
The USA peppered over 50 shots on net versus China and added two power-play markers. This is a team that consists of plenty of first-round talent including 20-year-old Sean Farrell who netted a hat trick and five total points versus China.
Like the Canadians, the Americans also got production from the entire lineup as only six skaters failed to record at least one point in the 8-0 win.
We could also see the USA move on from game one starter Drew Commesso in net and turn to 34-year-old Pat Nagle on Friday night. Nagle has split his time with the AHL and ECHL this season, which is not a great situation if you’re expecting a low-scoring game.
Canada dropped a 5-1 decision vs. the US in the group stage of last year’s World Championships and followed that up with a 4-2 win in the semifinals. These teams also played an exhibition game on Monday but because there were no officials, things got heated, and it was called early. We’d expect some of that animosity to boil over into Friday night.
Both teams won big in their first games but did not look perfect by any means and could get burnt versus a much stronger opponent Friday night. With the possibility of both teams going to their second options in net, we doubt this game finishes 2-1. We’re backing the Over 5.5 in what should be a great game that could feature plenty of power plays.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (-103)
With both clubs looking to get both of their goalies involved, the second game of this tournament is a perfect spot to look for goals. Both clubs have solid No. 1 netminders but their depth is an issue and we doubt a game between Tomkins and Nagle will finish under five goals.
Each team had some success on the power play in the opener and both clubs look to have scoring talent up and down the lineup. With the rivalry heating up, we’re expecting a physical game that could turn into the officials trying to keep things under control and possibly call some extra infractions. We love goals on Friday night and think both clubs could score three.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Germany vs. Canada picks, you could win $41.87 on a $10 bet?
Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2019, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site’s live content lineup.
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