Just four teams remain in the women’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics.
Team USA, which was an odds-on favorite to win the gold medal before play started, will take on Sweden in one semifinal, while Canada will meet Switzerland in the other.
The coaches and players will say you can’t ever overlook any opponent in a competition like this, but it would be a monumental shock if we don’t see another installment of USA vs. Canada in Thursday’s gold medal game.
That said, one of the two juggernauts has looked more vulnerable than the other.
While the United States has rampaged through the tournament, including a 5-0 drubbing of Canada last week, the Canadians have looked a step behind, relatively speaking.
They were flat against the Americans, their only real test of the competition so far.
Canada cleaned up its act by throttling Finland and Germany by a combined 10-1 to reach the semifinals, but they’ve yet to have that statement game you look for out of a heavyweight in a field like this.
On paper, Canada’s 5-0 win over Finland was its most impressive, but it took a while for the Maple Leafs to get out of first gear in that contest, and they only outshot the Finns 23-17.
The scoreline was flattering.
This may sound like nitpicking considering Canada is one win away from the final, and they’ve outscored opponents 19-7 through their first five contests, but that’s how it feels.
They’re looking over their shoulder at Team USA, which boasts a plus-25 goal difference despite playing nearly the same exact schedule.
All of this is to say that Canada’s game against Switzerland may be about sending a message across the 49th parallel as much as it is about beating the Swiss.
That may sound like a stretch, and it could come off as disrespectful to Switzerland, but that’s how this stage is set.
The Canadians have been desperate to make their mark in this tournament and put a shot across Team USA’s bow, but they’ve only got one more shot to do so before a presumptive meeting with the Stars and Stripes in the finale.
But it’s not just the off-ice posturing that makes me believe that Canada can cover this 4.5-goal spread, and then some, there is also concrete evidence pointing toward this being a laugher.
The Canadians already defeated Team Switzerland, 4-0, in the tournament-opener, but that scoreline is quite deceiving.
The hockey world was critical of Canada’s performance in that contest because it was only ahead 1-0 after 40 minutes. That wasn’t for lack of dominating, though.
They outshot the Swiss 55-6 in that effort but struggled to figure out goaltender Andrea Braendli.
Turns out, a lot of teams have had that issue in this tournament.
Braendli has put together a tournament for the ages.
She is coming off a 40-save performance in a 1-0 win over Finland in the quarterfinals, and owns a .944 save percentage through five games, two of which came against Team USA and Canada.
She has made a strong case for tournament MVP to this point.
A hot goaltender can take you places in hockey, but relying on your netminder to stand on her head night in and night out is not a winning formula, especially against a team that just got a good look at her a week ago.
Under normal circumstances, knockout rounds are all about surviving and advancing.
They don’t ask how; they ask how many.
But in this instance, Canada has a lot to gain from making a statement.
Look for Marie-Philip Poulin and the Canadians to get ahead early and pile on.
Backing Canada -4.5 is a fine bet, but don’t be afraid to look for some alternate spreads, as I think there’s a chance we see Canada threaten double digits Monday.
The Play: Canada -4.5 (-120, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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