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🏒 4 Nations Final
Last Updated: February 17, 2025 10:24 AM EST • 3 min 29 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
It’s the truest form of a “must-win” game. Canada and Finland square off in their final match of the 4 Nations Face-Off round robin, and both teams need a regulation victory if they want to advance to face the Americans in the final on Thursday. Puck drop from TD Garden in Boston is at 1 p.m. ET (TNT).
After a 3-1 setback against Team USA on Saturday, Canada will be looking for a rematch to redeem itself. Finland has also positioned itself for redemption for a tournament-opening loss to Team USA after beating Sweden 4-3 on Saturday.
While Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off odds have fallen off from once being a co-favorite, Finland has improved to draw level with Sweden.
Our Canada vs. Finland prediction, picks, and odds expect a rebound performance from the Canadians.
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
I don’t love the -140 odds for Canada to record a multi-goal win. However, it’s the only wager that backs Canada with enough value. Monday’s contest in Boston represents an ideal rebound opportunity for Canada, which will be hellbent on getting one more shot at Team USA.
However, I don’t think this game will get out of hand. Finland showed its quality against Sweden, and knowing a regulation win against Canada would get them through to the final will be galvanizing.
But Canada possesses too much quality for this Finnish team to contend with, no matter the scenario.
Kevin Lankinen proved his mettle against Sweden despite finishing with -.99 goals saved above expected. He’ll invariably get the nod for the Finns.
The looming question is whether Team Canada head coach Jon Cooper sticks with Jordan Binnington or twists, starting Adin Hill or Samuel Montembeault. While Binnington hasn’t been woeful by any stretch, he allowed a weak five-hole goal against both the Swedes and Team USA. Making those saves is imperative, especially at this level with little separating each team.
Connor Hellebuyck did so on Saturday, and the result reflected as much. He’ll want to do so again in my Sweden vs. USA prediction.
Hellebuyck didn’t steal the game against Canada. But he outplayed Binnington, which was the primary difference between the teams. Hellebuyck finished the game with 2.79 goals saved above expected, while Binnington registered -.54. It’s the second time in as many outings that Binnington finished with a negative goals saved above expected.
With that in mind, I’d be surprised to see Cooper return to Binnington, and starting Hill makes sense now. Even if the Vegas Golden Knights goaltender doesn’t stand on his head, Canada should be able to do enough to prevail against an outmatched Finnish team.
Cooper can then decide whether to go back to Binnington for the final. And if Hill enjoys a solid outing, Cooper can return to him on Thursday. Canada’s head coach must take his lead from Finland bench boss Antti Pennanen, who replaced Juuse Saros with Lankinen.
While nothing has been confirmed, I believe Makar will return to the lineup against Finland. He missed the game against Team USA due to an undisclosed illness.
If the Canadians tally a multi-goal triumph, a $10 bet will profit $7.14.
Best odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%
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I can’t foresee the Canadians allowing more than two goals against a Finnish team that’s mustered 5.01 expected goals in two games. Canada, contrastingly, has created 7.01 expected goals without looking overly dangerous.
I expect a 4-1 win for Canada, setting up a gold-medal game between the pre-tournament odds favorites.
Who will score those goals? I break that down in my Canada vs. Finland player props.
Best odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%
Odds via Betway.
Here are the rosters for Monday’s 4 Nations Face-Off Canada vs. Finland matchup.
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