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By Luke Sims –
In life, sometimes someone gives you something for free just to get it off their hands. On the surface, it looked like a tremendous deal. A low-risk, high-reward deal that has no real downside.
The Minnesota Wild pulled off such a trade on the eve of free agency, when they accepted a trade with the Detroit Red Wings for forward Vladimir Tarasenko. They took Tarasenko out of Detroit’s hands for future considerations in return. Bill Guerin landed Tarasenko, the former St. Louis Blues star, as a one-year $5 million rental.
On the surface, the trade might not look too bad. Tarasenko has two goals and eight points in 18 games this season, good for sixth on the team. But when you look under the hood of the 33-year-old’s play, it tells another story.
For context, Tarasenko has logged the seventh most time on ice this season among Wild forwards, playing primarily in a top-six role with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy as his linemates. Only Ryan Hartman has played more minutes than Tarasenko and had worse production.
Tarasenko has also spent most of his time on the top power play. That will change because Mats Zuccarello has returned, and Tarasenko will drop to the second unit. In his time on the top unit, he accounted for seven of his ten points on the season. That means, in his nearly 200 minutes of even-strength play this season, he has a whopping 3 points.
Yakov Trenin and Vinnie Hinostroza could also say the same. Not a good look for the guy known for putting the puck in the back of the net.
Look at the chart below:
It highlights that whoever lines up next to Tarasenko is worse off than they would be if they were not playing with him. All seven of his most common linemates have seen their numbers improve away from him. So, what should the Wild do with him?
Tarasenko has never excelled defensively. Still, he’s been sound defensively this year, giving up 1.52 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) when he’s on the ice. That’s good for second on the team behind Yakov Trenin, whom the Wild signed for his defense.
So, does that mean Vlad should play a fourth-line, checking role? Probably not.
Tarasenko still has a heavy shot and can be a threat offensively when the Wild puts him in the right situations. The problem is that it just isn’t happening for him or his linemates in five-on-five play this season.
As of now, the difference between his play and the play of a guy like Hinostroza is not all that different, and until Nico Sturm comes back or the inevitable Marcus Johansson regression hits, Tarasenko will have to bide his time and hope that he can start to bury the chances that come his way in a third line, and second power-play role.
There was hope that a change of scenery and some better linemates would bring back the Tarasenko that Wild fans used to fear when he wore a Blues jersey.
Still, it looks a whole lot more like the Wild got the disappointing version of Tarasenko, who played for the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings. Returning Zuccarello to the top-six and the top power play unit offered little hope that Minnesota would spark the one-time 30-goal scorer.
The question, then, is what’s next for him?
All stats and data via HockeyDB and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.
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By Robert Brent
By Thomas Williams
Posted
what’s next….i think we should waive him. hope that someone takes yet another chance on him. worst case, Leo pays for him in Iowa (if Vlady decides to stick around and not return to sunny Florida) and we free up 5MM. But also send Jiri with him so that neither is too lonely. Either to Iowa or Florida.
Posted
How many fucking PAT’s is Guerin going to KLANK of the upright before Leo has had enough?
Posted
On Judds pod cast Jesse was saying she knows Billy is out kicking tires on a couple players. Not the superstars she hoped for but something to shake up team. Then I read something about Kyrou. What stupid crap is Billy and his clueless pro scouts up to. Especially after getting fleeced on jiricek and wasting cap money and roster space for vlad. Hes worthless in the top six and even more worthless in the bottom six. Our pro scouts should be fired. I get making a mistake once in awhile because you’re making educated swings at improving your team. However we’re not making educated decisions, rather ego driven ones. Vlad needs to go but he won’t due to Billy’s ego.
Thinking about what the heck the wild could do to salvage this wasted extortionist upcoming decade is to get a # 1 center quickly. To get the most out of kk before he goes the vlad direction. We don’t have the value in players or prospects to trade for one. So we need one internally. Rossi is what he is a doesn’t have much ceiling left. He’ll get a little better but not #1c better.
I think Yurov is the best hope for that #1 and it should start now! You can see he has a lot more upside. You drafted him in 1st round so he better have some offensive touch. He’s already shown he’s a sponge. Growing game by game. Not year by year or never growing like Rossi and lambos. He’s got the body length and should fill out with man strength. He can skate, has hockey I Q and shows more tenacity than pro Rossi. The kid just seems to want to get better and does. So kk should put his big boy pants on and mentor the kid by having him center top line. Quit playing games with zuc. And develop the kid into the center kk needs. Rossi is not the future center for kk. Yurov might and has more tools than Rossi. It’s time to make him 1 and force kk and zucc to mentor like Crosby. Tyler T, Jamie Ben, etc do. Give the kid a good runway to become #1. It’s better than pissing away more assets on crap the pro scouts come up with. If it doesn’t work oh well you tried and get a good draft pick. If it does your set for a decade.
Posted
It just seems that Tarasenko has one thing he is good at, on a team that needs players to do most of their own work most of the time. Lesson learned; just make sure he isn’t re-signed.
Posted (edited)
Lesson learned; just make sure he isn’t re-signed.
Guerin: “say no more…”
gives Vlad a 3X$5M with full no move thru life of contract
Posted
How many fucking PAT’s is Guerin going to KLANK of the upright before Leo has had enough?
It’s more of a double-doink.
Posted
5 million a year is actually 4.75 million but close enough. Problem is he has a 8 team NTC which is fine. I doubt anyone would want him unless they wanted the expiring contract and I doubt those teams are on the 8 team list.
He is basically who NOJO was last year. Someone who takes up a roster spot and is a black hole on the ice.
The team has issues. Top half of the lineup is decent enough to win a Cup. Bottom half is decent enough to win the 1st overall pick. One or two injuries on either half of the lineup will tip the scales. I personally I hope it tips to the 1st overall pick side. Others want to give it a good college try and get bounced in the playoffs….Again.
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