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Last Updated: November 5, 2024 11:57 AM EST • 3 min 12 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
The Toronto Maple Leafs return home to face the Boston Bruins on Tuesday after losing both games on their recent two-game road trip.
While Craig Berube won’t be pleased with his team’s defeats to the St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild, there were a few promising takeaways for one of the Stanley Cup odds front-runners.
Against Minnesota, the Buds finally scored on the power play, their first with the man advantage in an enemy rink in the last 23 opportunities.
Toronto also carried the play in St. Louis, which wasn’t the case last time the Maple Leafs and Bruins met.
Boston won that contest 4-3 in overtime and will enter Tuesday’s game at Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) as the underdog despite winning eight straight regular-season tilts against Toronto.
Our Bruins vs. Maple Leafs prediction expects Toronto to finally break the streak while offering a William Nylander prop bet.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%
Terms and conditions apply.
I’m tempted to go with the Maple Leafs and Under 6.5 goals to optimize value. However, I picked the Under last time these teams met, only to have Auston Matthews tie the game at three with 1:17 left in the third. I took solace in predicting that the game would go into overtime.
Overall, both teams have been more inconsistent than the service on an Air Canada flight.
Boston enters on the back of consecutive victories, shutting out the Philadelphia Flyers (3-0) and the Seattle Kraken (2-0). They’ve either shut out the opponent or been shut out in three of the past four and four of the previous seven.
And they’re yet to win three straight, a streak that should continue on Tuesday.
If you’re into patterns, you’ll love this: The Maple Leafs won three, lost one, won one, lost three, won two and lost the last two. Continuing their inconsistent trend, they dictated play in St. Louis but were outplayed the following night in Minnesota.
For the most part, Toronto is playing well 5-on-5. The Buds have the fifth-best goals percentage (58.82) and are tied with the Florida Panthers for the seventh-best goals for per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (2.99). They allow the ninth-fewest per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (2.09).
However, their second-worst power play (10%) is costing them crucial points.
Berube had five forwards play on the man advantage against Minnesota, which paid almost immediate dividends when Nylander scored. The question is whether Berube continues the risk-forward and unorthodox approach against the Bruins.
Joseph Woll struggled in St. Louis, allowing 1.34 goals more than expected, while in Minnesota, Anthony Stolarz was again the Maple Leafs best player. He finished with 1.24 goals saved above expected, which was the primary reason the Maple Leafs escaped with a point.
Stolarz has allowed more than two goals in only two of eight outings and has the eighth-best goals saved above expected (4). He’s 4-2-2 with a 2.38 goals-against average (GAA) and a .919 save percentage. Based on how well he is playing, I can’t see Berube going with Woll.
Jeremy Swayman always saves his best hockey for the Maple Leafs and should get the nod after securing his first shutout of the season against the Kraken on Saturday.
NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%
Nylander leads the team with nine goals and is third in shots (42). He hit the Over on this prop in two of the last three games and in six of 13 overall.
Nylander had only two shots against the Bruins in Boston on Oct. 26. However, preceding that tilt, Nylander had five shots in three of four playoff games against the Bruins last season.
A winning $10 bet will profit $9.52.
Bruins-Maple Leafs predictions made Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.
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