Despite just four games on the ice tonight, the NHL gives us a marquee matchup between two elite teams in Boston and Colorado. Both teams come into this game in great form, but our NHL betting picks are expecting the home side to prevail on Monday.
NHL
The Boston Bruins head to Denver to take on the Colorado Avalanche in a matchup between a pair of favorites in the Stanley Cup odds. Colorado is carrying short home chalk in the NHL odds, and superstar center Nathan MacKinnon has his club riding a red-hot 6-1–1 stretch.
The Avalanche have also been a juggernaut at Ball Arena with seven consecutive wins preceding their 8-4 loss to the Florida Panthers on Saturday.
Boston is once again among the best teams in the East, and the Bruins have traveled well with a 12-5-3 road record. They’ve also won five of six out of the holiday break, so they’re ready for the challenge ahead.
It might only be January 8, but this is a tape-measuring matchup between a pair of powerhouse teams.
Here are our free NHL picks for the Bruins vs. Avalanche clash at Ball Arena on Monday, January 8.
The Boston Bruins are looking statistical correction directly in the eyes Monday. Boston has won five of six out of the holiday break despite a 44.6 Corsi For percentage and 42.9 expected goals for percentage at five-on-five. A league-high 14.9 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 has done the heavy lifting, and negative regression looms.
For comparison, Boston posted an 8.7 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 through the first 32 games of the year.
The Bruins also sport an unsustainably high 41.2 power-play percentage during the stretch, so they’ve been crushing it with the man advantage, too.
Additionally, I expect the Colorado Avalanche to rebound for the noted 8-4 loss to the Florida Panthers on Saturday. The Avs are amid their own heater with an active 9-3-1 record in which they’ve averaged a league-high 4.15 goals per game.
As a result, I like water finding its level on Monday, and the Bruins beginning to see a dip in their incredibly favorable puck luck. My lone concern in Avs No. 1 Alexandar Georgiev hasn’t exactly shined of late, and he’s been playing a lot. He was expected to rest Saturday, but ended up playing 30:55 and stopping just 12 of 15 shots after backup Ivan Prosvetov was pulled. Georgiev has played in 10 straight contests and sports a confidence-shattering .890 save percentage and 2.92 GAA during the busy stretch.
Still, the Avalanche check out slightly ahead of the Bruins in my ratings, and I give them the star power edge. Having the last change should enable head coach Jared Bednar chances to find favorable on-ice matchups for Nathan MacKinnon at 5-on-5, too.
My best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-125 at bet365)
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Avalanche moneyline
Under 6.5
Bruins team total Over 1.5 goals
I also like the Under 6.5 goals for this game because of the highlighted regression ahead for the Boston offense. Additionally, Bruins starter Jeremy Swayman has been incredible dating back to last season with a .921 save percentage, 2.32 GAA, and 25.9 goals saved above expected across 56 games.
Without a doubt, these are two scorching offensive attacks, but the Bruins (12th) and Avalanche (ninth) are both top-12 defensive teams in my ratings.
Turning to the Boston total, I noted Georgiev’s recent struggles and huge workload, so I do expect Boston to find the back of the net twice. Additionally, going with the Bruins Over 1.5 goals doesn’t correlate with the Avalanche moneyline or the Under 6.5 goals, so we’re landing longer odds.
Boston has scored two or more goals in each of its past seven games, too.
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There has been back-and-forth action on this moneyline, with consistent buyback on the Bruins whenever the Avalanche odds shorten. Colorado opened at -125 through bet365 and twice the number has gone to -130 before returning to -125 again.
This total isn’t as straightforward because there are both 6.0 and 6.5 numbers available. The vig is higher on the Over 6.0 with the Under 6.5 also saddled with the higher vig. Both of these teams have been playing to the Over more recently, too. The Over has hit in four of Boston’s past five and four of Colorado’s past six games.
Colorado has won seven of its past eight home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Avalanche.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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