For most teams heading into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is always renewed optimism, with some subscribing to the “just get in and anything can happen” theory.
The optimism can be seen as shortsighted, but history shows that the belief is justified in some cases.
When the NHL implemented the new division realignment in 2013, Round 1 has seen some great matchups. However, the lower seed has been on the wrong side of the matchup in this format, which is to be expected.
Since 2013, the lower seed owns a 36-60 record against the higher seed and the last three seasons haven’t been too kind to the underdog. In that time, those teams posted a 7-19 record.
So while the likelihood of seeing a Round 1 upset is not too high, it’s not impossible either.
With that being said, let’s take a look at the matchups involving each wild-card team and the division winners in Round 1 ,and determine which teams are most likely to provide us with some early drama.
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All playoff odds referenced are courtesy of MoneyPuck.
Will the Presidents‘ Trophy curse hurt the Jets?
The Winnipeg Jets had their best season in franchise history and are the he first Canadian team to win the Presidents’ Trophy since the 2011-12 Vancouver Canucks.
Just don’t ask the Canucks how that worked out for them.
Winning the Presidents’ Trophy is a prestigious honour, but with it comes a cautionary tale.
Since the trophy was first awarded in the 1985-86 season, eight winners have lost in the first round; the same number have gone on to win the Cup. The last team that finished at the top of the league standings and won the Stanley Cup was the Chicago Blackhawks in 2012-13.
Guaranteeing home-ice advantage throughout the post-season is a nice perk for Winnipeg, but the team is looking to overcome some unfortunate post-season luck.
After back-to-back years ending in first-round exits, the Jets don’t have an easy road in their pursuit of a Cup—well, no team really does.
Unfortunately for the Jets, the reward for finishing in first place is a meeting with the St. Louis Blues, the hottest team in the NHL.
Since the NHL returned from the 4 Nations Face-Off break, no team has earned more wins than the Blues, who went 19-4-3 over the final 26 games. A 12-game winning streak helped propel the team into a position to clinch the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
St. Louis became just the 10th team in NHL history to qualify for the playoffs after being eight or more points out with 26 or fewer regular-season games to go.
The Jets broke the Blues’ 12-game winning streak and are 3-1 against their Central Division rival this season.
One thing the Blues will be hoping for is a reclamation of their 2019 Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Final. Eight of the five players on the roster were a part of the 2019 Cup-winning team, so the team does have experience to pull off a run.
The real question is, where can the Blues find an edge over the Jets?
In most areas, Winnipeg has the advantage over St. Louis, but one area where there will be questions is in goal.
There is no doubt that Connor Hellebuyck will be the favourite to lock down another Vezina Trophy after posting a 46-12-3 record with a 2.02 goals-against average and a .924 save percentage.
Those numbers haven’t translated over for Hellebuyck in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, especially the last two seasons. The 31-year-old is 2-8 with a 4.28 goals-against average over his last 10 post-season starts.
His counterpart, Jordan Binnington, knows what it takes to win on the big stage, and the Blues will need him to be at his best in this series. The 31-year-old has a 20-20 record in 41 career playoff games with a goals against average of 2.73 and a save percentage of .910.
Binnington also got the edge over Hellebuyck in the final of the 4 Nations Face-Off, so the Blues goaltender can hold that over him.
MoneyPuck.com has the Jets at a 69.2 per cent chance to advance to Round 2, the third-best odds of all the playoff teams, but the Blues have proven that they are capable of beating the odds.
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Canadiens looking for repeat of 2010
The Montreal Canadiens were the final team to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and will now prepare for a tough matchup against the Washington Capitals.
It’s just the second time these two teams have met in the post-season, and it’s hard not to draw comparisons from the first time they went toe-to-toe.
Back in 2010, the Canadiens entered the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with 88 points, which led to a first-round matchup against the Capitals.
Washington was the top team in the league, winning the Presidents’ Trophy with 121 points. With 33 points separating the Capitals and Canadiens, the odds were certainly against Montreal, which at one point was trailing 3-1 in the series.
However, Jaroslav Halak played hero for the Canadiens, helping the team win the next three games, allowing just three goals in that stretch to pull off the massive upset.
Fast forward to this year, and while it’s not a 33-point difference in the standings, the Canadiens do come into the series as a serious underdog.
Getting to the post-season was not guaranteed for this Canadiens team as they sat 31st in the league on Dec. 1, but started to hit their stride in their return from the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Canadiens went 15-5-6 — the fifth-best record in the NHL during that stretch — to secure their spot.
The Capitals went 2-0-1 against Montreal in the season series but now face some question marks heading into the post-season. Both starting goaltender Logan Thompson and emerging forward Aliaksei Protas are injured heading into the playoffs.
Would their absence be enough to help the Canadiens close the competitive gap? Unfortunately for the Canadiens, there is still a lot of talent on this Capitals team that makes this a difficult matchup.
Yes, the Canadiens have enjoyed career-best seasons from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Calder Trophy candidate Lane Hutson, but they will need more players to step up their game.
Can Sam Montembeault provide his team with his own Halak-esque effort? The Canadiens will need improvement from Montembeault, who has a 2-3 record, a 3.49 goals-against average and a .893 save percentage against Washington.
With a 30.1 per cent chance to make it to Round 2, according to MoneyPuck.com, the Canadiens will need to find a way to put some doubt into the minds of the Capitals.
Wild getting healthy at right time, but is it enough?
Another team that went down to the wire to clinch a playoff spot, the Minnesota Wild, are a team that has been tough to gauge.
Injuries to top forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek put Minnesota in danger of missing the playoffs. The team’s identity is built on its defensive game and strong goaltending led by Filip Gustavsson.
However, the Vegas Golden Knights have had the Wild’s number this season, winning all three games in the season series and outscoring Minnesota 12-4.
There aren’t many holes on this Golden Knights roster led by Jack Eichel, who had a career-best 94 points this season. This is also a roster that has 17 players from the 2023 Cup-winning team, so experience will be on Vegas’s side.
Currently, MoneyPuck.com has given the Wild the worst odds to move on to Round 2 at 27 per cent, and it’s tough to argue with that assessment based on how this matchup looks on paper.
Senators ready to add to Leafs’ playoff misery?
The Battle of Ontario is back, and it has taken 21 years for the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators rivalry to return to the post-season stage.
In this series, we have a Leafs squad that is under immense pressure to go on a deep playoff run after seven first-round exits over its last eight appearances. The Senators are back in the post-season for the first time since 2017 and will be looking to continue their run of success against Toronto this season.
A 3-0 record against the Leafs this season certainly has the Senators feeling confident in their ability to continue that success in the playoffs.
The formula for the Senators to pull off the first-round upset will need to be simple. Find a way to suppress the Leafs’ firepower, and hope that Brady Tkachuk is ready to carry the torch in the playoffs, especially on offence.
Ottawa also spent a pretty penny on Linus Ullmark to be a difference-maker for them this season, and he got them to the playoffs. Ullmark recorded a shutout against the Leafs in their first meeting this season and allowed two goals on 23 shots in the second meeting.
However, the Leafs did record a win against Ullmark in the playoffs last season, scoring three goals on 33 shots. During his time with the Boston Bruins, Ullmark didn’t have a stellar playoff record, going 3-6 with a 3.59 goals against average and a .887 save percentage in 10 appearances.
Another player who will need to come through in this matchup for Ottawa is Shane Pinto going up against Auston Matthews. In the two games Matthews played against Ottawa, Pinto went head-to-head against him 23:28 at five-on-five, limiting the star forward to just three shots on goal and one high-danger chance.
In those minutes, Matthews also saw a lot of the Senators’ top pairing of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. The Leafs will certainly try to get Matthews away from that matchup if they can.
Considering the Senators’ struggle to score, ranking 21st in the league in total offence and 30th in shooting percentage at five-on-five, they have to find a way to limit the Leafs’ star players, and Pinto will likely play a big part in trying to shut down their top forwards.
Of course, the longer this series goes, the more confidence Ottawa will gain, but they have just a 40 per cent chance to move on to Round 2. However, being the favourite hasn’t always worked out for Toronto. So while an upset will be tough to pull off for the Senators, they are certainly capable of it.
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