Find out why our NHL betting picks believe Quinton Byfield will find the score sheet when the Los Angeles Kings host the St. Louis Blues tonight.
NHL
Quinton Byfield has really upped his game of late, recording 11 points over his past 10 games.
My Blues vs. Kings predictions see Byfield building on his strong form with another productive outing on home soil, where he’s done his best work this season.
Let’s break things down further with my NHL picks for Wednesday, March 5.
My best bet
Quinton Byfield Over 0.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Quinton Byfield has been attached to the hip of Kevin Fiala, and those two have played terrific hockey together.
They have helped the Los Angeles Kings dominate the run of play at 5v5, controlling 61% of the shot attempts and 62% of the expected goals while scoring more than three goals per 60 minutes. Very strong numbers across the board.
As you’d expect, Byfield has seen a spike in production when playing with Fiala and controlling the game to such an extent.
Byfield has averaged 2.33 points per 60 minutes with Fiala on his wing. That is the most efficient output out of any of the 12 Kings players Byfield has played at least 100 minutes with.
While Byfield does not skate on the top power play, the No. 2 unit has shown some teeth and actually taken the first shift on multiple opportunities of late. He is getting more run than earlier in the season.
With such strong usage, Byfield is in a good spot to hit the scoresheet any given night. Also helping his cause in this game is home ice.
The Philipp Danualt and Anze Kopitar lines will draw the toughest matchups against the St. Louis Blues, affording Byfield the luxury of spending more time against lesser players.
That kind of usage has certainly helped Byfield. He has 14 points over his last 12 games in Los Angeles compared to five spanning the last 13 road dates.
Look for Byfield, who hasn’t hit the scoresheet in three games, to snap out of his funk against St. Louis.
Quinton Byfield Over 0.5 points
Pavel Buchnevich Over 1.5 shots on goal
Vladislav Gavrikov Under 1.5 blocks
The Kings are a strong shot suppression team but they are not invulnerable, especially against wingers. They have allowed the 12th-most shots to wings over their past 10 games.
Pavel Buchnevich has recorded multiple shots in 58% of his games this season and actually averages a little more volume when playing on the road. He has cleared 1.5 shots in five of his last six games, including a four-shot performance against the Kings just a couple of games back.
Buchnevich skates on a line with a pass-first center in Robert Thomas and plays in all situations, making him a good player to target on such a low line.
Vladislav Gavrikov has blocked multiple shots in 59% of his games this season. However, the books don’t seem to be adjusting to one key factor: Drew Doughty’s presence.
Gavrikov blocked 2+ shots in 65% of games without Doughty in the lineup compared to four of 11 with Doughty (36%).
The Blues rank 24th in 5v5 pace and shot-generation on the season so they’re not a team that should bring out a ceiling performance from Gavrikov.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Los Angeles has scored 16 goals over the last three home games against St. Louis, with Byfield hitting the scoresheet in two of them. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Kings.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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