With a lockdown goalie such as Connor Hellebuyck at the helm, the Winnipeg Jets are looking to put on a defensive masterclass to set the tone early against the St. Louis Blues for Game 1 of the NHL Playoffs.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The Presidents’ Trophy winners begin their quest for a Stanley Cup on home soil against the 8th-seeded St. Louis Blues.
My Blues vs. Jets predictions expect a tight, low-scoring game between a pair of Central Division rivals that usually play one another tough.
Let’s dive deeper into my NHL picks for Saturday, April 19.
It’s tough to go against the Jets at home. They ran teams out of the rink in Winnipeg all season long, posting a remarkably strong 30-7-4 record in their own building.
The Jets ranked 10 spots ahead of the Blues in goals per game, 10 spots ahead of them in goals against per game, and cruised to the finish line while the Blues had to play in competitive, taxing, high-stress games.
My Blues pick: Under 5.5 (-140 at BET99)
The Winnipeg Jets were one of the very best defensive teams in the league during the regular season, ranking first in goals against and 10th in shots allowed.
They were especially stingy when playing on home soil. The Jets allowed just 1.94 goals per 60 minutes in Winnipeg compared to 2.66 per 60 on the road – which was still the second best mark in the NHL.
Winnipeg plays with a lot of structure and defends as a five-man unit, making it very difficult to create opportunities. When teams do finally break through, they still have to contend with Hart Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck.
Scoring more than a couple of goals is a big challenge for any team and the St. Louis Blues are unlikely to be any different. Their offense was not as potent down the stretch while playing without Dylan Holloway. Their goal outputs dipped and they recorded 30+ shots only once over their final nine games. Win or lose, I don’t see the Jets giving up a big number.
The same can probably be said of the Blues. The Jets did not score a ton of goals down the stretch and nine of their final 10 games went under the number.
A late-season injury to Nikolaj Ehlers, who drives offense for their 2nd line, is not going to help matters against a strong Blues defense.
After a bad start to the season, the Blues flipped the switch under Jim Montgomery and ranked 7th in goals against per 60 minutes under his tutelage.
They mostly played strong defensively and Jordan Binnington has proven himself capable of masking mistakes when called upon – even more so on the biggest stages.
With strong defenses and a great goaltending matchup between Binnington and Hellebuyck, there isn’t much reason to expect fireworks.
Under 5.5
Kyle Connor Over 2.5 shots
Jordan Kyrou Over 2.5 shots
Kyle Connor is Winnipeg’s best volume shooter by a country mile. He ranked 1st on the team in goals, shot attempts, shots, and led the way in the latter category by 87. Nobody on the roster even came close.
In a potentially low-scoring playoff game, the Jets will surely be looking to get Connor some extra usage as they push for offense and look for someone to be the difference.
I also like Jordan Kyrou to test Hellebuyck whenever possible. Kyrou finished the season strongly, recording 3+ shots in eight of his last 10 games. The Blues leaned heavily on Kyrou as they pushed to get into the playoffs and that won’t change come playoff time.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Only three of the past 10 head-to-head meetings have gone Over the total. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Jets.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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