The Calgary Flames played in several low-scoring games at home last season, and our expert NHL predictions expect that trend to continue tonight against the St. Louis Blues.
NHL
The Calgary Flames were one of the league’s best goal-suppressing teams at home last season.
After a couple of looser games on the road, my Blues vs. Flames predictions see them getting back to a lower-event style in their home opener.
Here are my top NHL picks for Saturday, October 11.
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Blues vs Flames Best bet: Under 5.5 (+100)
The Calgary Flames played in several low-scoring games at home last season. They held opponents to 2.01 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the seventh-lowest mark in the league.
Contenders like the Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, and Colorado Avalanche were among the many teams that failed to match Calgary’s prowess in that regard.
Dustin Wolf played a significant role in their success, posting a 20-8-4 record with a .921 save percentage on home ice. He was elite.
The Flames opened some eyes by starting Wolf in back-to-back games to start the season. With the team set to be off until Tuesday, when they’ll kick off another set of back-to-backs, they will no doubt be going back to Wolf this afternoon.
Otherwise, they’d play backup Devin Cooley in two of the next three games, which doesn’t make much sense when you have a high-end starter.
After allowing eight goals over their first two games on the road, the Flames will be looking to tighten the screws in their home opener.
Playing the St. Louis Blues should help. They play a slower, methodical brand of hockey and are excellent defensively no matter the building.
Morgan Frost has benefited from an uptick in usage thus far, playing at least 16 minutes in both games. He averaged 2.3 shots on 4.4 attempts per game when logging 16+ minutes at home last season. That led to results in the shot prop market, with Frost clearing this line at a 63% clip.
Jimmy Snuggerud is skating on the top line and top power play alongside the likes of Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich, both of whom are better playmakers than finishers. He should get plenty of shooting opportunities in this role.
The Calgary Flames have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 83 games (+7.80 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Flames.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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