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Last Updated: December 31, 2024 6:04 AM EST • 2 min 54 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
You’ll be able to watch hockey the way it was intended Tuesday when the Chicago Blackhawks host the St. Louis Blues on an outdoor rink at Wrigley Field for the 2024 Winter Classic (5 p.m. ET, TNT).
The Winter Classic is the only time that discussing how the weather will impact an NHL contest won’t elicit hairy eyeballs from anyone within earshot of the conversation.
On that note, it will be about 36 degrees Fahrenheit with six mph winds (gusting to 22 mph) and a 40% chance of mixed precipitation when the puck drops.
While I don’t expect the weather to impact proceedings in silo, there are other compounding factors influencing my decision to back Under 5.5 goals in the following Blues vs. Blackhawks prediction.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -115 via Betway | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Nobody will mistake either team for a high-powered offensive juggernaut.
The Blackhawks scored more than three goals in just three of their last 15 games, including once in the previous six. Since head coach Anders Sorensen took the reins, Chicago has netted more than three goals in three of 11 contests.
They’ve scored the sixth-fewest goals per game since Dec. 1 (2.57) and have the third-fewest expected goals (65.29).
Jim Montgomery immediately recognized the Blues’ need for defensive improvement if his new team intended to push for a playoff spot. Since he took charge, St. Louis has allowed the ninth-fewest goals per game (2.56). Beforehand, they conceded the eighth most (3.36).
Six of their last nine road contests had five or fewer goals, including four in a row entering Tuesday’s Winter Classic. Six of their previous eight games hit the Under on 5.5 goals.
The Blues aren’t quite as anemic offensively as the Blackhawks. However, St. Louis also struggles to light the lamp, scoring more than two goals in three of the previous eight.
While these teams don’t need any further excuses for their offensive inadequacies, the Winter Classic provides them on a silver platter.
First, the ice usually isn’t spectacular for these bombastic marketing showcases. In fact, many Winter Classics are about as choppy as the ocean directly under a Category-5 hurricane. The less-than-perfect playing surface isn’t conducive to high-scoring affairs.
The wind and possible sleet in Chicago isn’t a recipe for sleek offensive performances either.
Nine of the last 13 Winter Classics, including the previous two, had five or fewer goals. There’s always a chance for the dreaded 4-2 score, but I’m taking my chances on a nail-biting, scrappy, defensive slugfest. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.70.
NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%
Holloway has fired at least three shots in four straight games. If you go back further, he has hit the Over on this prop in 10 of the last 17 contests.
While those numbers are encouraging, I’m most impressed by Holloway’s output in enemy rinks, where he has registered at least three shots on goal in 10 of the last 13. If that’s not enough, his plus-money odds offer a little extra glimmer on an already shimmering pick. A winning $10 bet will profit $13.
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