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NBA Tip-off
Last Updated: October 11, 2024 12:24 PM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read.
The Winnipeg Jets circle games against the Chicago Blackhawks on their team calendar, as, at least recently, they have almost always resulted in two points.
The Jets are 9-1-1 against their Central Division rivals since the start of the 2021-22 season. 
And while I believe the Jets will extend that record to 10-1-1 in Friday’s home opener at Canada Life Centre (8 p.m. ET puck drop), there isn’t enough value on the Betway moneyline (-260) to take the plunge.
Plus, the Blackhawks have a knack for sticking around, with three of four head-to-heads decided by a goal last season. 
That’s why our Blackhawks vs. Jets prediction turns to the Over/Under while targeting our first Connor Bedard prop of the fresh campaign. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
While the Jets aren’t among the Stanley Cup odds favorites, their 6-0 whitewash of the Edmonton Oilers on opening night was an impressive way to kick off the campaign. 
I’m not going to take anything away from that result. It was fully deserved against an Oilers team that inexplicably overslept again to start a season. However, the Jets scored six goals on just 20 shots, chasing Stuart Skinner after he allowed five goals on 13 shots. 
Winnipeg finished that game with 2.49 expected goals, which is more of what we’re accustomed to where the Jets’ offense is concerned. Connor Hellebuyck didn’t miss a beat, yet again performing up to the level of his Vezina Trophy odds. 
I expect that same low-expected goal and exquisite goaltender combo against the Blackhawks.
This time, though, Petr Mrázek or Arvid Söderblom (whoever gets the nod) should offer a more challenging puzzle to solve than Skinner did. Mrázek was decent in the opener against Utah Hockey Club, allowing -0.95 goals saved above expected. 
All four of last season’s games between these two teams had five or fewer goals, and seven of the previous eight hit the Under. 
Also, the Blackhawks scored the fewest goals per game in enemy rinks last season (1.93). Chicago played fairly well in Utah on opening night and was down 3-2 with a couple of minutes to play. A late empty netter and another insurance marker made the score appear more lopsided.
Last season, the Jets were fairly efficient at home, scoring a respectable 3.34 goals per game.
That was the ninth most. But it feels like the Jets, who are expected to struggle to score goals more than last season, blew their entire load in Edmonton.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33. 
Odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%
Terms and conditions apply.
NHL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
Odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Unsurprisingly, the most promising offensive forays went through Bedard in Utah. He had two assists and was dangerous throughout, firing five shots on goal. Had it not been for the way-too-juiced -160 odds, the +2.5 shots prop was another appealing option. 
Bedard set up Teuvo Teräväinen and had the second assist on Nick Foligno’s goal. If the Blackhawks score, there’s a high probability Bedard will be in on it. 
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
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