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Last Updated: October 15, 2024 9:55 AM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
On Tuesday, the Calgary Flames, one of four remaining unbeaten teams, welcome the Chicago Blackhawks to the Scotiabank Saddledome.
Despite being near the bottom of the Stanley Cup odds leaderboard, both teams enter the contest on the back of impressive wins over the Edmonton Oilers.
The Flames’ 3-0 start is thanks to opportunistic scoring and mostly solid goaltending, while the Blackhawks’ play perfectly reflects their 1-1-1 record.
Chicago took two of three against Calgary last season, with only one hitting the Over. While the Flames’ fire is burning wildly to start the season, I expect to see some offensive regression from them in our Blackhawks vs. Flames prediction.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -125 via Betway | Implied probability: 55.56%
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The Flames’ offense has come out of the gates searing hot, scoring 16 goals in three games. If you’re a Flames fan, take a screenshot of this next stat, as it won’t last much longer.
Calgary has scored the most goals per game (5.33) of any team through the season’s first week.
It’s not that I don’t think the Flames’ offense is dangerous; it clearly is.
The experience and skill of Nazem Kadri and offensive defensemen Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar bolsters an exciting young core.
Oh, and I almost forgot to mention Jonathan Huberdeau.
How could I overlook such a household name? Sufficed it to say, Huberdeau has been a bitter disappointment in Calgary since he arrived in the Stampede City prior to the 2022-23 campaign.
But maybe, just maybe, things are starting to turn for Huberdeau.
He scored 37 points in the final 46 games of last season and has five points in three games to kick off the 2024-25 campaign. He even scored with his shoulder against Philadelphia in the home opener on Saturday.
However, I feel regression is coming for the Flames’ offense as assuredly as winter in Winterfell.
The Flames have the fourth-most goals above expected (2.91), the 22nd-ranked Corsi rating (48.14%), and the fifth-best shooting percentage. Maintaining a high goals-per-game clip with those numbers is about as feasible as expecting my dog to contribute to the household chores.
The question is whether the regression will start tonight against a middling Blackhawks defense. Petr Mrázek, who should get the nod in goal, stole the game in Edmonton, turning aside 36 of 38 shots and finishing with 2.07 goals saved above expected.
I expect Calgary to score less than four goals for the first time this season if Mrázek plays anywhere near that level. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.
NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Teuvo Teräväinen has five points in three games, tied atop the Blackhawks’ scoring list with Connor Bedard. Unsurprisingly, they play on the same line and have been in on 62.5% of the team’s goals.
The difference?
Bedard sits at -225 to register a point, while Teräväinen is at a much more palatable -120. Teräväinen already has two power-play goals and eight shots on net.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
Blackhawks-Flames predictions made Oct. 15 9 a.m. ET.
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