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Big Fights
Last Updated: November 16, 2024 10:50 AM EST • 2 min 56 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
What happens when Godzilla fights King Kong? We’ll find out when the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, two of the Stanley Cup odds favorites, square off on Saturday in Toronto.
Slowly starting to resemble the team that came within a goal of the Stanley Cup, the Oilers have won three straight and five of their last seven, including four of the previous five in enemy rinks.
The Maple Leafs are also been enjoying a fruitful patch, winning four of their last five overall and at Scotiabank Arena, where the puck drops at 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network, Sportsnet).
Auston Matthews will miss his sixth game with an upper-body injury, but his absence doesn’t impact our Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +115 via Betway | Implied probability: 46.51%
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The Maple Leafs are home underdogs, which happens about as often as a quiet rush hour in Toronto.
With that in mind, I’m backing Toronto to continue its success on home ice. I expect the Maple Leafs to play immeasurably better than they did on Wednesday at home against the Ottawa Senators, where they slept-walked throughout the proceedings.
It’s highly unlikely either team endures a sleepy start in a nationally televised Saturday night game at a Canadian hockey Mecca.
Toronto allows the second-fewest goals on home ice (2.10) and is 7-3-0 at Scotiabank Arena, with all seven victories of the multi-goal variety. While it hasn’t been confirmed, Anthony Stolarz should get the start in goal. He produced his first mediocre game of the season against Ottawa and will be looking to rebound.
Stolarz is 5-2-0 with a .943 save percentage and a 1.74 goals-against-average (GAA) at Scotiabank Arena. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted better stats in his own barn (.943 save percentage, 1.54 GAA).
Whoever starts in goal for Toronto will be in for a challenging night. The Oilers have posted the second-most expected goals (43.5) and are finally being rewarded, scoring 11 goals in the last three games.
Connor McDavid has registered nine points in those three contests, and he became the fourth-fastest player to reach 1,000 points after scoring against Nashville on Thursday.
However, the Maple Leafs hold the advantage in goal, especially if Stolarz starts. Stuart Skinner, who has allowed three goals in three straight outings, should get the nod for the Oilers.
While impressive recently on the road, three of Edmonton’s last four victories came against teams that didn’t make the playoffs last season. The Oilers face an entirely different beast in Toronto.
Plus, the home team has won the last five games in this timeless rivalry. A winning $10 bet will lead to a profit of $11.50.
NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Leon Draisaitl tallied four shots in two of his last three games. And he usually lets loose when playing the Maple Leafs. Draistaitl recorded at least three shots in six of his last seven games against Toronto, averaging 3.43 shots per game during that stretch.
The Maple Leafs don’t allow a ton of shots at home, which is one of the reasons the lower shot total for Draisaitl is more appealing than McDavid’s at 3.5. A winning $10 bet would yield an $8.33 profit.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs predictions made Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
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