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Last Updated: October 19, 2024 10:16 AM EDT • 2 min 60 sec read.
Two 3-1 teams, both among the Stanley Cup odds favorites, get the opportunity to test their mettle on Saturday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the New York Rangers.  
The Maple Leafs have won three in a row by a combined 14-6 score, while the Rangers outscored the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins 15-3 in their three victories. 
With four of the last six head-to-head clashes decided by one goal and both teams playing so well, I suspect they’ll have to wait at least a game before enjoying another lopsided victory.
Toronto enters as the favorite at Betway and across our best sports betting sites. 
Our Rangers vs. Maple Leafs prediction, picks and odds analyze whether we’ll see the fourth Over in a row between these two Eastern Conference foes while checking in on the Auston Matthews goal-scoring market. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -125 via Betway | Implied probability: 55.56%
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There will be a ton of offense on display at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday night. Despite having more arsenal than a weapons depot, I’m backing the Under.
While all three matchups between Toronto and New York hit the Over last season, the previous three had five or fewer goals. 
But the primary reasons I’m backing Under 6.5 goals have nothing to do with historical trends and revolve entirely around tonight’s starting goaltenders and how well both teams are playing defensively. 
It didn’t take long for Igor Shesterkin to make an indelible mark on the 2024-25 campaign. He secured a shutout against the Penguins in the opener, turning aside 31 shots.
Uncharacteristically, he allowed six goals in the follow-up game against Utah Hockey Club. He recovered well against Detroit at Madison Square Garden, allowing one goal on 32 shots.
The Vezina Trophy odds favorite, who has a .921 save percentage and 2.28 goals against average through three games, rested in Detroit on Thursday and will be raring to go.
And then there’s Anthony Stolarz, who has a gleaming .940 save percentage and 1.70 goals against average, allowing five goals through three games.
He also has the ninth-highest goals saved above expected (3.0). Stolarz has taken a tight grip on the No. 1 role in Joseph Woll’s absence and has no intention of relinquishing it. 
Toronto has taken to Craig Berube’s philosophy like a math genius to a calculus problem. The Buds have allowed the fourth-fewest goals per game (1.75), and the fifth-fewest goals against per 60 minutes (1.35). 
Aside from allowing six goals to Utah, New York has also been as tight defensively as a runner’s spandex, allowing three goals in three games. The Blueshirts have conceded 2.25 goals per game overall, tied for sixth-best with the Minnesota Wild.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8. 
NHL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%
While Matthews has been the most consistent goalscorer since he arrived in the NHL, he’s also prone to streakiness. The Maple Leafs’ sniper scored his first goal of the season against the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, which Toronto fans will hope represents the dam breaking.
Matthews scored 14 goals in nine games after the last time he went three without lighting the lamp. Plus, Matthews has four goals in his previous three games against Shesterkin. 
A $10 bet will profit $9.52 if he nets his second of the season.  
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