The Canadians enter Sunday’s gold medal game as narrow favorites, and Todd Cordell expects Mitch Marner & Co. to prevail in Milan.
All eyes will be fixed on the ice Sunday morning as Canada and the United States face off for gold in the 2026 men’s Olympic hockey final.
My Canada vs. USA prediction and betting picks break down why a repeat of last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off final is in store at prediction markets like Kalshi.
On Kalshi, a contract priced at 53 cents implies a 53% probability of Canada winning the Gold Medal game.
In betting terms, you’re effectively “buying” a win for $0.53, equivalent to -113 in traditional American odds.
My prediction: Canada – Yes (53 cents at Kalshi)
Canada is the highest-scoring team in the tournament and has also posted the best goal differential at +19.
That’s particularly impressive because it has also faced a more difficult schedule. Four of the five games Canada has played were against teams that ranked sixth or higher in slot shot share.
Of the United States’ five opponents, only Sweden (fourth) ranked in the Top 6, and the Swedes took the United States to overtime despite playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Canada has posted better results while facing a tougher path. Look for it to claim gold.
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade “Event Contracts,” which are simple Yes/No questions like “Will the Eagles win this Sunday?” These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a “vig,” which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your “Yes” shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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