We are through the preliminary group stage of the men’s Olympic hockey tournament. Starting Tuesday, the knockout qualifiers begin. The United States has earned the No. 2 seed, which comes with a bye to the quarterfinals.
The United States and Canada both went 3-0-0 in the group stage, cementing their positions as the clear top two dogs in the race for gold in men’s Olympic ice hockey. While that isn’t a surprise, there have been a few surprises elsewhere.
The Swedes have struggled. Losing to Finland can be explained away, but struggling with Italy cannot. They also conceded a late goal against Slovakia that impacted seeding. Speaking of Slovakia, they’ve been impressive, winning their group over Sweden and Finland.
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As winners of their respective groups, Canada, the United States and Slovakia earned byes to the quarterfinal. Finland, the next best team, also earned a free ticket to the next round. The remaining eight countries will play on Tuesday to try to secure their spot in the quarterfinal. The matchups are:
Based on how the bracket is set up, any potential USA vs. Canada matchup would come in either the gold or bronze medal game. The United States will play the winner of Sweden vs. Latvia. If they win that game, they’ll play the winner of Slovakia vs. Germany/France in the semi-finals.
Sweden’s underperformance in the preliminary round is not a welcome sight for Americans. Sweden entered the tournament viewed as the clear third-best team, and it’s likely the Americans will draw them in the quarterfinals, which is earlier than anyone expected.
Canada has outscored opponents 20-3 through three games. The United States has been slightly less dominant, outscoring its opposition by a combined 16-5. With that being said, here are the current probabilities for each country to win gold, according to Kalshi:
Canada’s probability has risen by about 10% since before the tournament started. The United States has seen its ranking drop by a few points, as it wasn’t overly dominant in the group stage. The biggest fall comes from Sweden, which entered the tournament with about a 15% chance according to the Kalshi market.
Kalshi operates as a federally regulated financial exchange that allows users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which fall under state regulation, rely on oddsmakers to post lines, and build in a near 10% vig, Kalshi functions more like a marketplace. Prices are determined by user trades and market opinion, and the platform earns revenue through small transaction fees.
Kalshi also offers a wider range of event markets, including options that typically aren’t available at sportsbooks, including entertainment, politics, weather and more.
If you’re new to prediction markets, take a look at your Kalshi promo code review to get a better handle on the platform.
When you register using Kalshi promo code NJCOM, you’ll earn $10 in site credit after completing $10 in trades.
The code must be entered at the time of registration to qualify for the bonus. Once your total trading activity reaches $10, the $10 bonus will automatically be credited to your account.
This bonus can be used to make additional trades and predictions. You can withdraw any profits generated from those trades; however, your bonus stake is not returned. The bonus itself cannot be cashed out as it carries no direct cash value.
To claim this offer, you must be at least 18 years old and physically located within a legal state in the United States.
NOTE: Event contracts trading involves risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Prediction markets content is not intended for individuals located in jurisdictions where they are prohibited.
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