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Looking for Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning free NHL predictions? NHL betting sees the Panthers taking on the Lightning on 2/5 at Benchmark International Arena, in Tampa Bay. This free NHL pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Panthers Lightning matchup.
(29-24) Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (36-14)
Date: Feb 05, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa Bay, FL
NHL Moneyline Odds: Panthers +165 | Lightning -199 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NHL Puck Line Betting Odds: Panthers +1.5 | Lightning -1.5
NHL Hockey Gambling Total: O/U: 6
Here’s why I’m backing a Tampa Bay PL bet below in my Panthers Lightning free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
The Florida Panthers head into this matchup on the road carrying a 29-24-3 record under head coach Paul Maurice. They currently sit 12th in the Eastern Conference and seventh in the Atlantic Division. Florida is coming off a confidence-building win over the Boston Bruins, a game where Anton Lundell made his presence felt with one goal and two assists.
Tampa Bay enters in a much stronger position. Under head coach Jon Cooper, the Lightning own a 36-14-4 record and sit atop both the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference. Their recent form has remained steady, with Nikita Kucherov continuing to pile up points, including another productive showing against the Buffalo Sabres.
Games between these rivals tend to open up once special teams start shaping momentum.
Head-to-head results this season lean slightly toward Tampa Bay, which holds a 2-1 edge in the series. Florida has quietly handled business against the puck line, however, going 3-0 in those meetings. Scoring has also trended upward, with two of the three matchups finishing over the total.
Florida will look to build off its last win while tightening defensive lapses that have shown up recently. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, aims to protect home ice at Benchmark International Arena and continue dictating pace with its high-powered offense.
With both teams featuring top-end talent, this matchup carries plenty of weight on ESPN+.
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2026 NHL Hockey Handicapping
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The betting market points toward Tampa Bay as the favorite, listing the Lightning at -199 on the moneyline. Florida comes back at +165 as the underdog. The puck line reflects similar expectations, with Tampa Bay -1.5 at +131 and Florida +1.5 priced at -159.
Florida’s recent stretch has been uneven. The Panthers earned a notable win over Boston, driven by Anton Lundell’s playmaking, but that result followed losses to teams like Buffalo and Winnipeg. Those swings highlight the consistency issues Florida is trying to correct.
Tampa Bay has stayed locked in, winning four of its last five games. Nikita Kucherov has remained central to that run, consistently finding the scoresheet.
Their recent win over Buffalo further reinforced their position as the team to beat in the East.
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Tampa Bay enters riding a four-game winning streak and showing no signs of slowing down. Over their last three games, the Lightning have scored 16 goals, backing up their aggressive offensive approach.
That production aligns with their ranking of third in assists at 337 on the season.
Nikita Kucherov continues to set the tone offensively. He has recorded 29 goals and 61 assists for 90 points, including a recent outing against Buffalo where he posted one goal and three assists. His consistency keeps constant pressure on opposing defenses.
In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy has anchored the Lightning with 26 wins across 36 games. While he has yet to record a shutout this season, his 850 saves reflect steady play in high-traffic situations. That reliability has helped stabilize Tampa Bay during its current run.
Overall, the Lightning rank eighth in goals with 189 and eighth in power play goals with 37.
Their balance across special teams and even strength continues to fuel their place atop the standings.
Florida’s recent results reflect a team searching for rhythm. The Panthers pulled out a 5-4 win over Boston, but that victory sits among four losses in their last five games. Closing out tight contests has been an ongoing challenge.
Offensively, Florida ranks 16th in goals with 170 and 17th in assists with 285. Their power play has been a clear strength, producing 39 goals to rank sixth league-wide. Defensive metrics tell a different story, with the Panthers sitting 26th in blocks at 684.
Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk continue to drive production. Reinhart has totaled 55 points on the season, while Tkachuk has remained active across all situations, especially in recent games where Florida needed a spark.
Sergei Bobrovsky remains the primary option in goal, appearing in 39 games and recording 816 saves.
Although he has not posted a shutout this season, Florida leans heavily on his experience to steady the back end.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning bottom line: recent form meets elite consistency in a divisional matchup that usually leans toward offense.
Here is my Panthers Lightning free pick: I’m backing Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has found its scoring touch, winning four of five and piling up 16 goals in its last three games.
The offense has been efficient, not reckless. That pressure adds up quickly.
Florida has gone the other direction, losing four of five while allowing five or more goals in three of those games.
In particular, defensive breakdowns have come early.
This feels like a tough matchup for a team leaking goals.
Tampa Bay doesn’t need help to score right now.
Florida hasn’t shown the ability to slow momentum. At the same time, home ice has mattered for Tampa.
The Lightning finish chances when given space.
Florida has been chasing games.
For that reason, the favorite makes sense. I’m backing the Lightning to handle business.
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Last one before the break!
📝 https://t.co/jiPJXB0R6J pic.twitter.com/kjGGCVRS9e
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) February 5, 2026
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Brandon Banks is back with the Cappers Picks Blog, he has been a sports writer for a few years now. He’s been a very successful bettor, especially in NFL, College football & NCAA hoops betting. Reasons for success – not affiliated with any SCAMDICAPPERS. Stay tuned to Brandon, he’ll be picking NFL, CFB, CBB and NBA games daily here on the blog.
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