Home » Winter Olympics 2026 Hockey Predictions: Here’s Where USA, Canada and Other Teams Are Projected To Finish
The men’s hockey tournament at the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 opened Wednesday with Slovakia beating Finland and Sweden topping Italy. NHL players are back at the Olympics for the first time since 2014, setting up a true best-on-best event.
All 12 teams play three preliminary games before moving to a single-elimination bracket that ends with the gold medal game on Feb. 22 in Milan. The journey to the top is going to be interesting, with so many strong teams competing for gold.
So, let’s take a look at early predictions, exploring which teams have the strongest odds to win medals.
Canada enters as the betting favorite at +105 on FanDuel. Forecast models from The Athletic’s Ryan Best and Dom Luszczyszyn give Canada a 42% chance to win gold and an 85% chance to reach the semifinals.
The roster features elite talent across every line. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar headline a deep group that can score and defend. Canada also benefits from strong depth, featuring several elite NHL players.
The model projects Canada to clear the quarterfinals with more than 99% of chance. So, anything short of a medal would be a shock.
The United States sits second in the odds at +190 and owns a 37% chance to win gold. The Americans have an 83% chance of reaching the semifinals and a 26% chance of winning silver.
Goaltending drives this projection. Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, and Jeremy Swayman give the U.S. the strongest crease group in the field. If the Americans win tight games, they can challenge Canada in a final.
The forecast shows the U.S. is nearly locked into the quarterfinals at over 99%. So, clearly, a medal is the expectation.
Sweden ranks third in both odds and projections at +550. The model gives Sweden an 11% chance to win gold and a 23% chance to take bronze.
Sweden has depth at forward and a strong structure. If Elias Pettersson, William Nylander, and Mika Zibanejad find top form, the Swedes can beat anyone in a single game. They project safely into the quarterfinals at 98%.
Finland (+1300) and the Czech Republic (+2200) sit in the next tier. Finland owns a 4% gold chance, while Czechia checks in at 3%. Both teams project around 37% to reach the semifinals.
Switzerland follows at +3500 odds and a 2% gold chance. Germany (+10000) and Slovakia (+15000) remain dark horses with less than 1% gold odds.
Long shots include Latvia (+25000), Denmark (+75000), France (+100000), and host Italy (+100000). All project below a 1% chance to win gold.
Now the games will decide the rest.
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