NHL
The Maple Leafs, Panthers and Oilers are among teams that may be sending out their first-round picks if conditions are met. Bruce Bennett / Getty Images
Nearly one-third of the first-round picks in the 2026 NHL draft have already conditionally changed hands as part of completed trades.
That means most contenders don’t have one to put in play before the March 6 trade deadline.
What those transactions also highlight is that there’s a risk in not putting the proper guardrails on a traded first-rounder in a league where the margins between success and failure seem slimmer than ever before.
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With the NHL season on pause for the Milan Cortina Olympics, it’s a good time to check in on where things stand with the conditions on the 2026 first-round picks that no longer belong to their original owners.
Each of these conditions has been confirmed by league sources.
Top-10 protected, traded to the Chicago Blackhawks in the Seth Jones deal on March 1, 2025
When the Panthers made this trade, most people weren’t too concerned about conditions on the pick since they were in the midst of a third straight run to the Stanley Cup Final.
In other words, it seemed moot.
However, hockey insider Frank Seravalli caused a small stir last week when he reported the pick was top-10 protected. That’s an important caveat missed in the original discussion around the deal because Florida has been besieged by injuries this season and sat 23rd overall entering the Olympic break.
The Panthers were wise to protect themselves against the risk of a lost year. In the event that their 2026 pick lands in the top 10, Chicago will automatically receive their unprotected 2027 first-rounder instead.
Top-five protected, traded to the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo deal on March 7, 2025
A rare trade between Atlantic Division rivals could wind up haunting the Maple Leafs for years to come.
Toronto is in grave danger of missing the playoffs — holding 21 percent odds of qualifying, according to The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn — and could end up in no-man’s land barring a significant change in fortune down the stretch. With the Leafs unlikely to bottom out and land a top-five pick, they’re in a position where if they miss the playoffs, Boston would get a pick that falls somewhere between Nos. 6 and 16 — in addition to having received an exciting young player in Fraser Minten in the trade.
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Of particular note here is how unique the scenario would be if the Leafs managed to keep their 2026 first-rounder courtesy of it becoming a top-five pick: That would mean their 2027 and 2028 firsts belong to Boston and Philadelphia — acquired by the Flyers in the Scott Laughton trade — with the Leafs in position to decide which team gets which pick in the event the 2027 pick falls in the top 10.
League sources believe the Leafs could leverage that situation to extract further assets out of either the Bruins or Flyers in a subsequent trade ahead of the 2027 draft. However, it’s not the most likely outcome here. Right now, the odds suggest Boston will get the Leafs’ 2026 first-rounder.
Top-12 protected, traded to the San Jose Sharks in the Jake Walman deal on March 7, 2025
The Oilers maintained flexibility to make a further move at this trade deadline courtesy of the conditions they placed on the 2026 first-rounder traded to San Jose last season.
Edmonton hit the Olympic break sitting in a Pacific Division playoff spot, albeit not with as big of a cushion as it would prefer. No matter. The Oilers aren’t particularly exposed here since they hold the option to convert the 2026 first to 2027 in the event it falls inside the top 12.
However, if they elect to trade their 2027 first-round pick in a subsequent deal ahead of this deadline, the Sharks will automatically get their 2026 first with no strings attached.
Traded to the Calgary Flames in the Noah Hanifin deal on March 6, 2024
There were a couple of conditions involved in this trade when it was completed, but they have since been resolved.
The end result? Calgary now owns the 2026 first-round pick, free of any strings.
Top-10 protected, traded to the Carolina Hurricanes in the Mikko Rantanen deal on March 7, 2025
The Stars own the league’s fourth-highest points percentage, which virtually guarantees their 2026 pick will be transferred after the season. It is top-10 protected, though, in the highly unlikely event that the bottom falls out in Dallas.
In that case, the Hurricanes would be transferred the rights to the 2027 first-rounder instead.
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Top-10 protected, traded to the New York Rangers in the K’Andre Miller deal on July 1, 2025
The Rangers are in line to receive Carolina’s 2026 first-round pick or the one they acquired from Dallas for Rantanen as part of this transaction.
The conditions call for New York to receive the “better” of those first-rounders in the event both are outside the top 10, which is by far the most likely outcome based on the current standings.
If one of those picks falls inside the top 10 and the other does not, the Rangers would receive the lower pick.
In the event both picks wound up inside the top 10, which is incredibly unlikely, the Rangers would receive the “better” of Carolina’s 2027 first or Dallas’ 2027 first.
Traded to the Vancouver Canucks in the Quinn Hughes deal on Dec. 12, 2025
This one is straightforward and simple: The Canucks own this pick with no strings attached. There’s virtually no chance it becomes a lottery selection, though, with the Wild owning greater than 99 percent odds of qualifying for the playoffs, according to Luszczyszyn.
Top-10 protected, traded to the Seattle Kraken in the Oliver Bjorkstrand deal on March 5, 2025
While there are numerous conditions involved with this trade, the only one still relevant to the 2026 first-round pick is that Tampa has top-10 protection on it. If it were to end up that high, the Lightning would transfer a 2028 first and 2028 third to the Kraken instead. Otherwise, it goes to Seattle this year.
Top-10 protected, traded to the New York Islanders in the Brock Nelson deal on March 6, 2025
Some of the original conditions attached to this trade have been resolved, leaving just one remaining aspect still to be determined: Colorado’s 2026 first-rounder goes to the Islanders unless it falls inside the top-10. In that case, it would become a 2027 first instead.
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Of course, with the league-leading Avalanche virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs this season, the 2026 pick is almost certainly going to Long Island.
Pick forfeited
The NHL announced on Nov. 1, 2023, that the Senators would forfeit a first-round pick in either 2024, 2025 or 2026 as a penalty for their role in an invalidated trade involving former Ottawa player Evgenii Dadonov.
The Senators have since elected to keep their first-round picks in 2024 and 2025, thereby choosing to forfeit their 2026 first.
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Chris Johnston is a senior writer covering the NHL for The Athletic. He has two decades of experience as an NHL Insider, having appeared on Hockey Night in Canada and the NHL Network before joining TSN in 2021. He currently hosts the “Chris Johnston Show” on the Steve Dangle Podcast Network. He’s written previously for the Toronto Star, Sportsnet and The Canadian Press. Follow Chris on Twitter @reporterchris
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