NHL
Connor McDavid now has nine goals and 20 points in eight December games. Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images
In the NHL, Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid floats all boats. Every year-end summary includes iconic goals, a points per 60 over 2.5, and a five-on-five goal share well over 50 percent. Add in power-play totals, and McDavid’s numbers annually touch the very outer marker of NHL performance.
This year started differently, and there was some worry that “peak McDavid” was a thing of the past. At 28, with a birthday early in the new year, a long, slow career coda involving consistent performance erosion seemed possible, maybe even likely.
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Then came December, and a reminder that doubting McDavid is a bad idea. What happened? Is McDavid back? What were the causes of the spike in production?
The 2025-26 season began in a peculiar way. Just before opening night, coach Kris Knoblauch announced McDavid and Leon Draisaitl would play on the same line at five-on-five. In one fell swoop, the team scrapped the summer additions and effectively turned the team’s second, third and fourth lines into glorified depth trios. What’s more, McDavid and Draisaitl were saddled with winger Trent Frederic, who is still recovering from a high-ankle sprain and was no help in October. McDavid had a terrible month at five-on-five, previously an area of strength for over a decade.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
October was an outlier, but McDavid’s line was under 50 percent in November, too. Regression took its own sweet time, but December’s arrival has the captain’s five-on-five results shot out of a cannon.
The Oilers were trying to figure out a roster that once again featured heavy turnover in those months, with the McDavid line impacted by several elements, including the absence of his top winger.
The Oilers’ No. 1 right winger didn’t play an NHL game this season until Nov. 15, and he didn’t play on McDavid’s line every shift in his first few games back in the lineup. In 80 minutes together at five-on-five in November, McDavid and Hyman outscored opponents 2-1 but ran an expected goal share of just 44 percent. Since Dec. 1, in 96 minutes, the tandem is 9-5 goals (64 percent) with an expected share of 63 percent. The difference in goals per 60 for the line is striking. In November, the duo scored 3.05 goals per 60, and ramped up to 4.91 goals per 60 in December.
Once the top line started to roll, the Oilers began winning games consistently.
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The Oilers don’t line-match anymore, mostly because Knoblauch feels a need to optimize the top lines and runs them out early and often. There’s logic and reason in running your best when fresh and making the other coach deal with it, but the ask from the coaching staff meant heavy minutes for the captain.
There are signs of those big minutes easing now. During October and November, he averaged 17:18 at five-on-five. During December, that number is down to 16:21. Overtime has an impact on even-strength numbers, but five-on-five minutes reflect playing time during regulation. One minute less of ice time can benefit, and McDavid has been more effective since the change.
The change is even more drastic on the penalty kill. He averaged 1:28 in October, 43 seconds in November and just seven seconds so far in December. Overall, McDavid’s time on ice in all situations has fallen from 22:58 (October and November) to 21:40 (December). McDavid’s speed is always breathtaking, but his performance since the reduction in ice time is a factor in recent success. His stickhandling, passing and shooting have spiked in recent weeks.
Note: his ice time on the power play has seen a slight uptick in December, but those are cherry minutes for McDavid. His work on the power play doesn’t get discussed a lot because it’s established he’s elite and has been for years. This season, he leads the NHL in points per 60 (12.18), via Natural Stat Trick. The captain has the highest power-play shooting percentage of his career so far this season.
McDavid is back on track, and with Hyman, the club has a fantastic top line. The second line, led by Draisaitl, is also delivering big production. The impact centres can’t do much to help the third and fourth lines, both underwater so far this season. Here’s a look at the four lines, using centres as a proxy for each line.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Credit to the coaching staff for figuring out the first, second and fourth lines, but the third line (Adam Henrique) is in trouble, and that could impact the McDavid line. The alternative to playing Henrique as the third line centre is moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins off the top line and inserting him as No. 3 centre.
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The Oilers need some help in this area. Stan Bowman’s summer brought in the likes of Andrew Mangiapane, Jack Roslovic, Curtis Lazar (re-signed after being picked up at the deadline) and Frederic. Roslovic (currently injured) and Lazar (currently taking over the fourth-line centre job) have worked out, but Mangiapane and Frederic have been a net negative. The cap is tight after the trade for goaltender Tristan Jarry last week.
Tuesday night’s game versus the Pittsburgh Penguins had it all. The Oilers traded for Tristan Jarry last week. He started against the goalie Edmonton dealt, Stuart Skinner, and defenceman Brett Kulak, who went along in the same deal. Draisaitl posted his 1,000th career point in the game. Sidney Crosby was chasing down Mario Lemieux’s franchise points record with Lemieux in attendance.
McDavid and Draisaitl stole the show. The captain now has nine goals and 20 points in eight December games. How has he done it? Hyman’s return, an easing of heavy minutes against elites at five-on-five and a return of Nugent-Hopkins on left wing have all contributed.
If the Oilers can figure out that third line without needing to move Nugent-Hopkins there, this team could make a third consecutive run to the final.
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Allan Mitchell is a contributor to The Athletic’s Oilers coverage. Veteran radio broadcaster. His blog, Lowetide, has chronicled the team since 2005. Follow Allan on Twitter @Lowetide
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