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Good morning to everyone except analytics nerds who stare at their spreadsheets instead of ever watching the darn games. Luckily, those people do not exist, so … good morning to everyone, I guess. Today we’re going to argue with math, which I’m sure will go great for us.
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There were five games last night, most of them out west. The Kings and Wild picked up big wins, the Canucks continued to spiral in a loss to the Red Wings, and the Flames and Sabres played some pond shinny because if you’re going to be in last place, you might as well have fun. Meanwhile, in Toronto, the Leafs’ third-string goalie faced the Lightning’s second-string goalie, and they combined to allow one goal because hockey makes sense.
And now … we have some questions.
Wake up babe, a whole bunch of brand-new NHL player polls just dropped. Um, unless you’re Nick Cousins or Brad Marchand, in which case you might want to go back to sleep and skip this one.
Here are the five new questions that we got players to spill about:
• Which player has the most punchable face? 🥊
Marchand and Cousins make the expected appearances, as does a pair of American brothers that won’t surprise you. But at least one of the names here is a shocker.
• Where will McDavid and Crosby play next? 🗽
Connor McDavid will probably stay in Edmonton and Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh, but the players think one is more likely than the other. And if one or both did move, they had some interesting ideas about where they could land.
• What’s the next unbreakable record to fall? 📈
As an added bonus, Dom and Shayna weigh in on whether there’s a chance any of these could happen. The most likely? Two savvy NHLers said it might be the career overtime goals record.
• Do they have social media and burner accounts? 📱
Of course they do. But a lot of them don’t enjoy it. Wait, are we supposed to enjoy social media? This is news to me, I may have to get back to you.
• Do tax rates matter? 💸
You’ve heard all about the issue of low and no-tax markets having an advantage. But is it actually something that players care about? There was a very conclusive winner on this one — a resounding yes — and I’m interested to see the reaction to it.
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They didn’t use my suggestion of “What is your favorite NHL newsletter?”, but I’m guessing that was because the answer was too obvious.
One of the odd statistical outliers from the first two months can be found in the list of penalty-minute leaders. While the top 10 features some expected names, such as Tom Wilson, Arber Xhekaj and Nikita Zadorov, the category’s current leader is none other than Mikko Rantanen, thanks to that recent “hit everyone from behind” phase he went through.
What makes this especially interesting is that Rantanen is currently also fifth in league scoring. So here’s a double question for you:
Who was the last player to finish a season in the top 10 in both points and penalty minutes? And what about the top five?
Answer down below.
🚨 Jesse Granger bravely goes to the most dangerous place in sports, the mind of an NHL goalie, and finds out how techniques are evolving.
🛠️ Seriously, how hard can it be to just build a properly sized Olympic hockey rink? Apparently pretty hard, as Chris Johnston reminds us.
👶 It’s the most wonderful time of the year, by which I mean time to get mad about who was or wasn’t invited to World Juniors camps.
🥈 Too many loser points means too many fake .500 teams, and it’s time to name and shame them, according to this very handsome writer.
🎙️ Max Bultman and Jesse Granger are joined by Thomas Drance on Monday’s “The Athletic Hockey Show” to discuss all things Canucks, including the topic on everyone’s mind, a potential Quinn Hughes trade.
There may not be a page on The Athletic that I visit more often than Dom Luszczyszyn’s playoff chances and projected standings. Updated daily, it runs the league through a mathematical model that generates team ratings, projected points and odds of making the playoffs or winning the Stanley Cup.
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The numbers are the numbers, and math can’t play favorites. But every now and then, the projections serve up something unexpected. That’s a feature, not a bug, because if all a model ever did was confirm our priors, it wouldn’t be very useful. Still, there are times when the projections just seem … wrong. And that gets me curious.
So I went to the source: the keeper of the model, Dom himself. He was kind enough to make time to answer a few of my questions about the most recent numbers.
SM: I noted this in Monday’s rankings but I think it’s worth a slightly deeper dive. Despite the Colorado Avalanche dominating the standings, they’re only tied for the top Cup odds. And the team they’re tied with is somewhat surprising — it’s the Tampa Bay Lightning, who lead the Atlantic Division but have only the fifth-best points percentage in the East. Why does math love the Lightning?
Dom: When it comes to the Lightning, there are a few things to tackle.
Over the last two seasons, their record has downplayed their strength. Last year, their plus-75 goal differential was second in the league; this year, their plus-13 is fourth. That’s probably a better reflection than points percentage. They’ve done that despite dealing with a lot of injuries, which has helped showcase some unexpected depth. The top of the roster is still great, but like the Avalanche, the team looks the deepest it has in years. That’s a big difference from last season.
The biggest factor, though, in direct contrast with the Avalanche, might be division strength. Colorado has the Dallas Stars as direct competition in the Central, while the Atlantic’s next best have slumped this year. An Aleksander Barkov-less Florida Panthers team and a rudderless Toronto Maple Leafs team give the Lightning a far easier path through the first two rounds.
SM: Two of those Eastern teams ahead of the Lightning by points percentage are the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins. Both teams have been great early stories. Both are exceeding expectations. Both would be in the playoffs if they started today. And both are still long shots according to the model, which has the Penguins at 34 percent to make the postseason and the Flyers at just 21 percent. What does math have against Pennsylvania?
Dom: When it comes to projecting this chaotic sport, I’m of the belief that building a track record is incredibly important. While this current season carries the most weight, you need each player’s recent history to help smooth things out. For example, if Sidney Crosby started a season with 10 points in 20 games after being a 90-point scorer the last two seasons, the expectation for the next 62 games should be closer to a 90-point pace rather than 41. The slow start does change the baseline, just not as quickly as some fans probably want.
That’s where we land with the state of Pennsylvania, where we have two teams that were expected to be bottom-feeders looking actually competitive. Good for them, but this is a script we’ve seen before. While there’s a real chance they surprise, what usually happens is these unexpected teams tend to run out of steam at some point. Maybe that’s Game 41, maybe it’s Game 62, maybe they make the playoffs only to fall flat on their face the next season. But they’re usually hard teams to bet on, especially when getting suddenly strong goaltending from guys with very weak track records.
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The Penguins are the stronger bet because they have decent enough underlying numbers that suggest more staying power than the Flyers. But then there’s the issue of just how competitive the East is. The Lightning, Hurricanes and Capitals look safe, and only 11 projected points separate the other 13 teams. That’s roughly 500 percentage points of playoff pie to split 13 ways. Usually, there’d be two or three teams already out of it, but the increased competition has created real uncertainty that lowers almost every team’s odds.
SM: Finally, while the playoff and Cup odds are the best part of the projections page, we can also scroll all the way down to see who’s in the running for last place. And I was surprised to see the San Jose Sharks still there, essentially tied with the Calgary Flames and holding just a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs despite a feel-good start that has them tied for a Western wild-card spot. Why does math hate fun and whimsy?
Dom: The Sharks are fun. Everyone loves the Sharks. With Macklin Celebrini one way and Yaroslav Askarov the other, they have a chance to steal any game. But the key word is “steal.” San Jose is still getting hilariously out-chanced every game, ranking 31st in the league in expected goals. Defensively, they’re a real mess. (Sidebar: Sean, for your own mental health, do not look at who they are tied with in expected goals against.)
It would be great to see Celebrini drag this team to the playoffs, but it feels more likely that the bottom falls out instead.
SM: One last bonus question: Why does your model hate my favorite team?
Dom: That’s a dangerous question — just look at what happened to the last fan base that asked it.
📺 Lightning @ Canadiens
7 p.m. ET on ESPN+ / TSN2 / RDS
With all due respect to the Bruins, we can call this a battle for top spot in the Atlantic, or at least for favorite status. The Lightning were rolling before a recent losing streak but have looked mortal lately. Remember, they played in Toronto last night while the Habs were home and resting.
📺 Stars @ Jets
8 p.m. ET on ESPN+ / TSN3
It’s a rematch from last year’s second round, but these two teams have been heading in opposite directions lately. The Stars look dominant and might even be the second-best team in the league right now. The Jets have lost seven of nine and, at this point, are just trying to tread water until Connor Hellebuyck gets back in net.
📺 Avalanche @ Predators
9:30 p.m. ET on TNT / Sportsnet
Yes, it’s an old-fashioned first-versus-worst battle. The oddsmakers have the Avs as monster favorites, even on the road. In the context of everything else we’ve seen this season, a Predators victory would make absolutely no sense. So I’m going to pencil them in for the 5-2 win.
Full NHL schedule here. Try streaming games like these for free on Fubo.
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We believe that in hockey, as in life, there are no dumb questions. So, if you have something you’ve always wondered about the sport, ask away by emailing us at redlight@theathletic.com.
A goalie gets lit up in the first and gets pulled, but then the backup goalie gets lit up as well. Has a team ever put the starting goalie back into the game? Is it even legal to make two goalie changes like that? — Andrew S.
We’ll cover your second question first: Yes, it’s legal for a team to make as many goalie switches as it’d like. It’s not like baseball or soccer where the player being pulled means they can’t return. In theory, teams can change goalies as often as they feel is necessary.
Does it ever happen? Yes, but it’s rare, for a few reasons. For one thing, if both your goalies have been shelled, you’re probably way behind on the scoreboard, so why even bother? Also, goalies are weird and not all of them handle being pulled especially well. Embarrassing your guy with a mid-game yank only to ask him to go back out there later might just get you a sulking and/or semi-engaged goalie.
But it does happen. Sometimes, we’ll see a goalie exit due to injury or equipment concerns, only to get cleared to come back. Sometimes, the second goalie might get hurt, or even ejected, forcing the starter back into the net. And sometimes, as Andrew describes, both guys just stink.
One relatively recent example of a double-pull came late last season. Islanders starter Marcus Högberg was yanked midway through the third after giving up six goals against the Rangers. His replacement was rookie Tristan Lennox, making his first career appearance. Lennox lasted five minutes, got credit for one save, allowed a goal, and was immediately replaced by Högberg. Fun fact: That remains Lennox’s only NHL action so far, meaning he sports career numbers of a .500 save percentage and 12.72 goals against average.
It was weird. Whoever’s coaching the Islanders must have no idea what it’s like to be an NHL goalie.
I often worry that my questions are either too easy or too tough. This one may have been both.
To find a player who finished in the top 10 in both points and penalty minutes in the same season, we don’t actually need to go back all that far. Just three years, to 2022-23, as new Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk marked his first year in Florida by finishing sixth in points and fourth in PIM.
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However, if you tighten the criteria to the top five, Tkachuk just misses. (He was two points back of Nathan MacKinnon for fifth.) So you have to go back … way back … all the way through to the other side of the decades-long enforcer era. The last NHL player to finish in the top five for both points and penalty minutes was Blackhawks legend Stan Mikita in 1963-64, when he won his first of four scoring titles while also finishing third in PIM.
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Sean McIndoe has been a senior NHL writer with The Athletic since 2018. He launched Down Goes Brown in 2008 and has been writing about hockey ever since, with stops including Grantland, Sportsnet and Vice Sports. His book, “The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL,” is available in book stores now. Follow Sean on Twitter @DownGoesBrown
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