NHL
The Oilers' Trent Frederic hasn't lived up to expectations — or his contract. Bruce Bennett / Getty Images
At long last, Olympic hockey is here. We’ve got a very special edition of the Power Rankings coming next week with that in mind, but first we have to wrap a bow on the NHL.
While the best of the best will be suiting up for their country in Milan, the league will be on a three-week break. That offers a chance to rest up, reflect and recharge for the stretch drive. Some guys really need it after the seasons they’ve had. That’s exactly who we’re chronicling for our last set of pre-Milan rankings.
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Here’s one player from each team who needs to step up down the stretch after failing to live up to expectations.
Last week: 1
Sean: 1
Dom: 1
Victor Hedman
Preseason expectation: Their No. 1 defenseman
What he’s been: Their No. 4 defenseman
Yep, after three games back from his elbow injury, that’s Hedman way down there on the Lightning’s third pair, skating to the left of Declan Carlile. It’s not Hedman’s fault, of course; he’s still good enough to argue that any pair he’s on is the first pair.
Still, the fact that he gets to slum it for a bit is a nice indicator of how well things went in his absence — Darren Raddysh and J.J. Moser, in nearly 600 minutes together, are logging a goal share of 70 percent and an expected goal share of 60 percent. Minutes like that are how you thrive even without your franchise cornerstone.
Last week: 2
Sean: 2
Dom: 2
Cale Makar
First half trend: Another special season
Last month trend: A rare glimpse of ordinary
We had to switch things up for the Avalanche because, well, there isn’t a single player on the team who hasn’t exceeded expectations. Everyone has been that good.
Given the recent swoon, though, there’s room for players to step up and that starts at the top of the lineup. Makar hasn’t looked himself of late, scoring just 12 points in 16 games during the new year while being just average at five-on-five. That’s well below his usual standard and has opened up the Norris Trophy race considerably. Makar was on a tear to start the season. He’s got to get back to that level.
Last week: 3
Sean: 3
Dom: 3
Nikolaj Ehlers
Preseason expectation: Someone who can bring dynamic offense to a structured team
What he’s been: Someone who’s been assimilated to Hurricanes hockey
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Expecting Ehlers to be Mikko Rantanen would’ve been unfair, and complaining all that much about the season he’s having would be, too. Still, he’s scoring goals at his lowest rate since his rookie season in 2015-16 (0.88 goals per 60, down nearly 0.5 from 2024-25), and it’s not because of lower shot volume or crummy luck. He is, however, posting the best shot share and expected goal rate of his career. That’s Carolina, baby!
Last week: 5
Sean: 4
Dom: 4
Thomas Harley
Preseason expectation: The next elite defenseman
What he’s been: A defensively suspect No. 4
Harley has been better of late; since Jan. 1, Dallas is outscoring opponents 14-11 with him on the ice with an expected goal rate of more than 51 percent. Still, the shape of his overall season hasn’t been great. He was injured early, his Defensive Rating is still sub-zero and his offensive production has dipped, too. As good as the Stars are, they’re going to need last year’s version at some point soon.
Last week: 6
Sean: 5
Dom: 5
Jared Spurgeon
Preseason expectation: An underrated two-way presence in the top four
What he’s been: A one-dimensional presence in the top four
All eyes are naturally on Minnesota’s new No. 1 defenseman, so the decline of the Wild’s previous No. 1 defenseman has mostly gone unnoticed. Spurgeon has still been great defensively, but his ability to drive offense has sagged a little too much.
Last week: 7
Sean: 6
Dom: 7
Sam Montembeault
Preseason expectation: A budding star goalie
What he’s been: The reason Montreal isn’t challenging for the division
We liked Montembeault enough to place him in our preseason top 150 — he’d improved for three straight seasons and saved the third most goals above expected in the league last season — but he had his doubters, too. They were correct. Montembeault (.875 save percentage, 3.9 GSAx) has been mediocre at best in his 21 starts, and the Canadiens have won just 10 of them.
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Last week: 4
Sean: 8
Dom: 6
Michael Kesselring
Preseason expectation: A top-four presence to solidify the blue line
What he’s been: An oft-injured third-pair option
The Sabres are a wagon and everyone has turned things up a notch, but there are still some elements that have been disappointing. Kesselring’s play and availability have been one of them. His potential top-four presence was a big part of what made the JJ Peterka deal so appetizing and while Josh Doan’s ascent alone has turned that into a win, it would’ve been nice to see Kesselring be that two-way No. 4 we expected. He’s shown brief flashes in between injuries; when he returns, that needs to be more consistent.
Last week: 9
Sean: 7
Dom: 8
Rickard Rakell
Preseason expectation: A play-driving top-liner
What he’s been: A capable second-liner
Rakell is still playing with Sidney Crosby, but after a 35-goal 2024-25, his production (0.9 goals per 60) has fallen back in line with his good-not-great career numbers. Nothing wrong with that — and the fact we had to nitpick this much for the Penguins is a sign of how good they’ve been overall.
Last week: 8
Sean: 9
Dom: 10
Marco Kasper
Preseason expectation: The missing pivot piece behind Dylan Larkin
What he’s been: A winger who needs to be carried by Dylan Larkin
There’s no denying that Kasper has been better of late, specifically since being moved to the top line. But on a surprise team without many options, he’s still the one who needs to elevate after the break. Given the opportunity he has next to Larkin, we want to see more from a guy many expected to be a core piece.
Last week: 17
Sean: 10
Dom: 11
Kent Johnson
Preseason expectation: A budding core piece
What he’s been: A slumping non-factor
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We didn’t expect Johnson to shoot 20 percent for the rest of his life, as he did last season, but his falloff (1.22 goals per 60 to 0.48) has been … excessive, let’s say. Johnson has been better under Rick Bowness, with six points in 11 games alongside strong play-driving numbers. Columbus needs more of that.
Last week: 11
Sean: 15
Dom: 9
Reilly Smith
Preseason expectation: A non-offensive third-liner
What he’s been: A replaceable fourth-liner
Smith, in his first full season back with the Golden Knights since a 134-game vacation in Pittsburgh and New York, has been brutal. His minus-5.7 Offensive Rating puts him near the very bottom of the league, with the Ryan Lombergs and Luke Kunins of the world. Vegas has a depth problem at forward, and Smith is a big part of it.
Last week: 15
Sean: 12
Dom: 12
Mason McTavish
Preseason expectation: Someone who might take the leap
What he’s been: Someone still underwhelming his pedigree
Part of the reason Joel Quenneville was a fit with Anaheim was his track record with young players, and McTavish seemed like a prime candidate to benefit. Instead, his production has dipped (2.43 points per 60 to 2.13), and some of his five-on-five impact has, too. The Ducks are back on a roll, but long-term, they still need McTavish to be more than a third-line center.
Last week: 12
Sean: 11
Dom: 13
Mikhail Sergachev
Preseason expectation: A legit No. 1 defenseman
What he’s been: A worrying option at the top of the lineup
The thing that separates the contenders from the pretenders is often a guy pretending to be a No. 1 defenseman. That was the concern for Utah when the Mammoth acquired Sergachev from Tampa Bay, a notion Sergachev mostly dispelled last season. This one has been a different story, though, where he’s had a case of Morgan Rielly Syndrome. The Mammoth are fortunate that the second pair has been so strong because they’re not getting enough out of their star at the top.
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Last week: 10
Sean: 13
Dom: 14
Andrew Peeke
Preseason expectation: A steady defensive presence
What he’s been: A struggling third-pair option
No big complaints regarding anyone on the Bruins, but if we had to pick a weak link, it would probably be Peeke. He’s always been a bit one-dimensional, but last year, he at least added some defensive utility. This year, he’s mostly struggled at both ends of the ice.
Last week: 13
Sean: 14
Dom: 15
Jonathan Drouin
Preseason expectation: Someone who can help offensively with or without Nathan MacKinnon
What he’s been: Someone who can only play with Nathan MacKinnon
There’s a lot to like about the Islanders, but it still feels like they’re missing something from their top nine. Drouin, theoretically, should be helpful there — but with 1.36 points per 60, and just three goals, he’s boomeranged back to his pre-Avalanche days … and then some. He’s gotten plenty of time with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal, too.
Last week: 20
Sean: 16
Dom: 17
Nick Jensen
Preseason expectation: An adequate second-pair defender
What he’s been: A defensive black hole
This one feels like a self-inflicted wound. Jensen’s game has fallen off hard, which shouldn’t be all that surprising for a 35-year-old defender. The Senators have a perfectly adequate top-four option languishing on the third pair — maybe it’s time they do the sensible thing and flip them in order to get the most out of Jensen’s minutes. He’s getting crushed right now.
Last week: 14
Sean: 19
Dom: 16
Trent Frederic
Preseason expectation: An expensive bottom-six piece
What he’s been: A very expensive replacement-level player
Our expectations were low for Frederic, but holy moly. In 55 games he has just three points (!) and he’s been getting crushed at five-on-five. If he was making the league minimum, he’d still be a massive problem; $3.85 million for the next seven years is difficult to fathom. Most people knew it was an overpay, but this is absurd. He needs to be a lot better down the stretch.
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Last week: 22
Sean: 17
Dom: 18
Connor McMichael
Preseason expectation: An up-and-coming top-six talent
What he’s been: A struggling one-dimensional player
Last year felt like a breakout for McMichael. This year has been a setback. The throughline there is Pierre-Luc Dubois: McMichael’s most frequent linemate last season who’s been absent for most of this year. McMichael’s main issue has been his defensive game; can Dubois’ return get McMichael back to last year’s level?
Last week: 19
Sean: 18
Dom: 19
Adam Larsson
Preseason expectation: A defensive rock
What he’s been: A defensive sponge
Larsson had aged into a reliable “what you see is what you get” option. This season, though, things have gotten ugly. The Kraken are allowing 3.24 expected goals per 60 with him on the ice at five-on-five. Among big-minute defensemen, that puts him in line with players such as Ben Chiarot and Tony DeAngelo. Not ideal, especially for a team without much offensive dynamism to spare.
Last week: 23
Sean: 20
Dom: 20
Quinton Byfield
Preseason expectation: A leap to two-way stardom
What he’s been: An offensive stagnation
If Byfield were at his best, would Artemi Panarin be in Los Angeles? It’s an interesting thought. What seems undeniable, though, is that the Kings are in desperation mode partially because Byfield hasn’t looked like an alpha-dog forward, scoring less frequently (1.64 points per 60, down from 2.15), and no longer being floated by his defensive impacts. Byfield finished 2024-25 on a tear — it’s part of the reason we (and others around the league) were so high on him. If the Kings don’t get that again, trading for Panarin will seem pointless.
Last week: 26
Sean: 21
Dom: 21
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Morgan Rielly
Preseason expectation: A player whose offense made up for his defense
What he’s been: A defensive disaster class
The Leafs have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams, leaving plenty of options. Still, it’s gotta be Rielly who’s seen the biggest drop in performance.
Rielly has always been frustrating, but at the end of the day, the good always outweighed the bad. These days, it’s a lot harder to say that’s true. Even in easier minutes, he’s struggling immensely on defense and isn’t driving offense to a large enough degree to make up for it. Rielly was never a strong candidate as Toronto’s best defenseman, but unless he steps up, it’s hard to even envision him as a top-four defenseman anymore — his defensive game has been that bad.
Last week: 18
Sean: 22
Dom: 22
Aaron Ekblad
Preseason expectation: A decent top-pair defenseman
What he’s been: A defensive liability
In a season full of disappointment, the Panthers have a few worthy options. The easiest pick right now has to be Ekblad, though — especially after Florida dropped a pretty penny to keep him for eight more seasons. Without Aleksander Barkov around, the top pair has struggled to keep pucks out of the net and Ekblad looks like the real drag there. He’s been on for way too many chances against.
Last week: 16
Sean: 23
Dom: 23
Yaroslav Askarov
Preseason expectation: The next elite starter
What he’s been: A time-splitter with a journeyman goalie
It’s hard not to draw comparisons between the Blackhawks’ and Sharks’ rebuilds. San Jose has the upper hand in many categories right now, but between the pipes is not one of them. A step toward franchise goaltending was expected to some extent for both Spencer Knight and Yaroslav Askarov going into the season; only Knight has delivered. Askarov has shown flashes, but if the Sharks have real playoff aspirations, he needs to show a lot more.
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Last week: 25
Sean: 24
Dom: 24
Matvei Michkov
Preseason expectation: A terrifying offensive threat for a defensive team
What he’s been: A dulled dynamo
Michkov’s Defensive Rating is up 1.4 goals from what was expected in the preseason. That’s growth! All is well! Nothing to see here! Whatever has gone on with the Flyers — we’re staying out of that — Michkov’s Offensive Rating (1.2) and Defensive Rating (0.3) each put him in line with players like Jake Neighbours and Logan Stankoven. Not terrible, and not nearly what the franchise needs him to be. Everyone can agree on that, right?
Last week: 21
Sean: 25
Dom: 25
Nico Hischier
Preseason expectation: A franchise two-way center
What he’s been: An OK top-line center
The Devils have too many options here to list, but we’ll go with Hischier. There’s no need to sound any long-term alarms, but he’s producing points at his lowest rate (2.11 per 60) since 2021, and his defensive impacts aren’t strong enough to counteract it. He’s been a cheeseburger. The Devils need him to be a steak (or a better cheeseburger).
Last week: 24
Sean: 26
Dom: 26
Jonathan Marchessault
Preseason expectation: A still capable top-six scorer
What he’s been: A defensively liable middle-six guy
As Steven Stamkos rediscovers his game, it’s gone a little unnoticed that Marchessault’s game has fallen even further. A 35-point pace with weak underlying numbers is not ideal.
Last week: 28
Sean: 27
Dom: 28
Teuvo Teravainen
Preseason expectation: An offensive catalyst
What he’s been: An offensive anchor
There was a point last season where Teravainen was quietly putting up point-per-game numbers over a long stretch on a weak Blackhawks team. He looked like someone who would boost the offense whenever he was out there. This year? Not so much. With just 23 points in 50 games, Teravainen needs to be a lot better after the break.
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Last week: 27
Sean: 29
Dom: 27
Connor Hellebuyck
Preseason expectation: The best goalie in the world
What he’s been: An average starter
There are any number of reasons to give Hellebuyck a pass for the .900 save percentage he’s toting thus far; he’s been at .920 or better in three seasons. The Jets continue to rely on him to a laughably unfair degree. He was injured for a spell. He’s got the Olympics to worry about. Take your pick — but what’s undeniable is that Winnipeg’s whole deal hinges on him being great, not stopping pucks at a rate four percentage points higher than the leaguewide average.
Last week: 29
Sean: 28
Dom: 29
MacKenzie Weegar
Preseason expectation: Top-pair defenseman
What he’s been: Washed
When we placed Weegar in our preseason top 150, it came with a caveat: Several members of our panel were worried about the mileage on his 32-year-old odometer. Lo and behold, no player has a greater difference between their projected Net Rating (plus-8.0) and actual Net Rating (minus-7.0).
Last week: 30
Sean: 30
Dom: 30
Cam Fowler
Preseason expectation: St. Louis Fowler
What he’s been: Anaheim Fowler
Remember how bad Fowler looked in Anaheim and how he immediately looked rejuvenated in St. Louis? Remember how dominant he was in last year’s playoffs? That all feels like a distant memory this year, given how Fowler has fallen right back to the liability he was in Anaheim. It’s been a tough season for a lot of players in St. Louis and Fowler’s regression has been one of the biggest issues.
Last week: 31
Sean: 31
Dom: 31
J.T. Miller
Preseason expectation: Someone who can score
What he’s been: Someone who can’t
Life is easier when you’re sinking about a quarter of your shots, which is what Miller managed after the Rangers acquired him last season. His shooting percentage is down about 10 percent now, though. It’d be less of an issue if he were contributing enough in other areas. Alas.
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Last week: 32
Sean: 32
Dom: 32
Elias Pettersson
Preseason expectation: A top-line bounce-back
What he’s been: More-of-the-same mediocre
“It’s just a blip, don’t worry, Pettersson will bounce back!”
Welp, after two years of mid, it might be time to admit that it’s over for Pettersson. Maybe on a better team he could look closer to his old self, but it’s getting harder to believe. Part of the reason the Canucks are where they are is that their best forward just isn’t that good.
A great Olympics with Sweden and a strong push to close the season might change some minds. For now, we’re not holding our breath.
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