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By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Published:
Sunday’s three-game NHL slate culminates out west, as the Golden Knights (25-15-14, 13-7-7 away) visit the Ducks (28-23-3, 15-8-1 home). Both these teams have been struggling this week, but online sportsbooks expect Anaheim to bounce back, pegging them as short home favorites in the latest NHL odds. The total is currently set for 6.5, and even though the Golden Knights have had a tough time keeping the puck out, I believe that number is too high.
Puck drop is set for 6:30 pm PT, 9:30 pm ET from the Honda Center, in Anaheim, CA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Keep reading for my Golden Knights vs Ducks prediction below, plus my favorite props and the latest odds for Sunday Night Hockey.
WIN OR LOSE!
I’m betting under 6.5 goals tonight, a wager that you can certainly poke holes in. The main issue with this bet is the Vegas goaltending situation, which continues to be a colossal mess.
Adin Hill is expected to get the start tonight, and his recent results leave a lot to be desired. Hill has surrendered 14 goals over his last three starts. He’s produced a save percentage south of .860 in each outing, and has posted a save percentage of .900 or better in just two of the nine games he’s started and finished this season.
Two things can be true: Adin Hill absolutely needs to be better. Adin Hill is receiving too much blame.
The other Golden Knights goaltenders haven’t been that much better, which explains how they’ve allowed 35 goals total over their last 10 starts. The underlying metrics suggest Vegas is due for some positive regression, and I believe we’ll see it tonight against a Ducks squad that struggles to light the lamp at even strength.
Anaheim is averaging only 1.5 goals in five-on-five situations over the last 10 games. They don’t project for a bunch of powerplays tonight, as the Golden Knights are the second least penalized team in the NHL, which means we can lower their offensive ceiling.
Also working against the Ducks is the fact that Vegas is sixth in expected goals against at even strength. They’re also top-six in scoring chances and high danger scoring chances allowed in five-on-five play, which suggests it’s only a matter of time before their goals against average regresses back to the norm.
Offensively, the Golden Knights have the look of a serious Stanley Cup odds contender, but Anaheim’s defensive shift should make goals tough to come by. The Ducks have done a much better job of protecting the middle of the ice over the last month, keeping chances to the outside to make Lukas Dostal’s life easier. Anaheim has surrendered only 17 goals at even strength over their last 10 games, with just three high danger goals allowed.
Lukas Dostal is ON HIS GAME tonight 🔥#FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/jbAJPD8TUi
Dostal will draw the start tonight looking for his second win of the season against Vegas. Dostal is 11-4-1 at home this season, and has yielded 2 goals or less in five of his past seven starts. He put up a 2.49 GAA and .914 save percentage over 10 starts in January, and owns a career 2.60 GAA versus the Golden Knights in five career meetings.
The Anaheim offense meanwhile, has some high end talent in forwards Cutter Gautheir, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke and Mason McTavish among others, but they don’t enter play at full strength. Carlsson, the team’s second leading scorer is on IR, while McTavish is a game-time decision with an upper body injury.
Shifting over to the NHL player props market, where I’m investing in Gauthier to record 4+ shots on goal. Only Nathan MacKinnon averages more shots per game than Gauthier, and the winger fired 6 pucks on net in his last meeting with Vegas, and another 8 that were off target. He’s racked up at least 4 shots in six of his past seven games, and is worth a wager to do so again tonight at juicy +148 odds.
The best place to bet under 6.5 goals in the Golden Knights vs Ducks odds is currently Bet365, who are offering the line at even money. DraftKings has the lowest odds on Vegas to win outright at -102, while FanDuel is the sportsbook to visit if you want to bet on the Ducks moneyline.
Odds as of Feb. 1st. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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