The stark difference in star power has been a common theme so far in this series and will be one that rears its ugly head this evening. Find out more by reading Neil Parker's Rangers vs. Capitals Game 3 betting picks.
NHL
The Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers at Capital One Arena for Game 3 of their opening-round series.
After losing the first two on the road, the Capitals need to flip the script with a home win tonight to avoid being down 0-3. The Rangers are a sizable road favorite again in Game 3, and they have the star power to pull away Friday and put the Caps on sweep watch.
Here are our free NHL picks and Rangers vs. Capitals predictions for Friday, April 26.
My best bet
Rangers in regulation (-104 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The New York Rangers will look to replicate their Game 1 play that resulted in a tidy 4-1 win. Starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin turned away 20 of 21 shots, and star winger Artemi Panarin scored a goal and registered seven shots on 10 attempts.
Star power is the biggest difference between the Blueshirts and Washington Capitals, and in Game 2, it was No. 1 center Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere leading the way.
It’s also telling that the Caps still couldn’t beat the Rangers despite showing up and playing well in Game 2. The Rangers were outplayed at five-on-five on Tuesday, with the Capitals leading the way in Corsi For percentage (54.9%) and expected goals percentage (59.4%).
I’m calling it a one-off, however. Besides, Washington finished last in both statistics during the regular season among all postseason teams.
Again, it reinforces the talent gap at the top of the two depth charts, and that New York is the superior team even when it isn’t at its best.
The final note is Washington could have four defensemen Rasmus Sandin (upper body) and Nick Jensen (upper body) returning to the lineup after practicing in full-contact jerseys during Friday’s morning skate. It’s an obvious boon for the Caps blueline, but jumping on a moving train down 0-2 won’t be easy, especially considering I don’t anticipate either being at full health.
New York has the winning blueprint and personnel to take the 3-0 series lead on Friday, and remember, Washington scored more than three goals for just the second time in 13 games dating back to the regular season.
The Capitals are outmatched tonight.
Rangers in regulation
Adam Fox 1+ assists
Capitals team total Under 1.5
Adam Fox ranks fourth with 2.37 points per 60 minutes among regular defensemen over the past three seasons, and he racked up an impressive 26 assists across 27 postseason games the last two years. Additionally, the go-to blueliner and power-play quarterback paces the Blueshirts in ice time (44:30) and has been on the ice for the second-most expected goals (3.0) through the first two games of the series.
Washington has struggled to score and Shesterkin is ripe for a rebound showing after allowing three goals on 25 shots in Game 2. The Russian netminder was elite down the stretch with a .929 SV% and 2.20 GAA since the All-Star break, and he posted equally strong .930 and 2.42 marks across 27 postseason appearances the past two years.
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The Rangers have won 17 of their past 22 games dating back to the regular season. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Capitals.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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