While the Penguins and Red Wings have identical records on the young season, Detroit has looked more impressive in its victories than Pittsburgh. With NHL odds setting the Wings as home underdogs, our betting picks determine if that's where the value lies.
The Detroit Red Wings host the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight on TNT’s nationally televised game.
Detroit won two of the three meetings between these two clubs last season but enters this first encounter of 2023-24 as home underdogs in NHL odds.
Will the Red Wings take care of business once again, or can the Penguins enact their revenge on the road? Find out in our free NHL picks for Penguins vs. Red Wings on Wednesday, October 18.
Both teams enter this contest with identical 2-1 records, although I am more impressed with how Detroit has looked than Pittsburgh. The Penguins’ lack of depth and grit combined with a defensively poor blue line all make me like the Red Wings here at plus money.
Through the first three games of the campaign, Detroit ranks higher than Pittsburgh in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. On paper, one of the few advantages the Penguins appear to possess is in net as Tristan Jarry is expected to go against Ville Husso.
However, Jarry is primed for regression after boasting a .944 SV% through his first two starts. Last year, he finished with a .909 SV% and ranked in the bottom half among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
To be fair, I don’t think Husso is any better, but I don’t think the gap between him and Jarry is wide enough to offset how much better Detroit has looked both offensively and defensively thus far. Winger Alex DeBrincat has been especially strong, leading the team with five points (three goals, two assists). Add to the mix that the Red Wings are at home in a nationally televised game, and I will take a shot on them at plus money to extend their winning streak to three games.
My best bet: Red Wings moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
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Red Wings moneyline
Andrew Copp anytime goal
Alex DeBrincat anytime goal
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While DraftKings is offering a slightly better price on the moneyline, the SGP multiplier for this set of legs produces better odds at FanDuel, so we’re switching books.
Obviously, Jarry and his .944 SV% is not going to last. I’m not saying he’s going to implode and allow six goals, but I do think he’s due for a four-goals-allowed-on-30-shots type of performance.
On top of that, Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5 thus far this season. With Jarry on shakier footing than his surface numbers indicate, Andrew Copp and DeBrincat are excellent candidates to light the lamp.
This also correlates well with Detroit winning.
Both Copp and DeBrincat are in the top-six forward group and on the two powerplay units, although each is on a different line/group so they won’t take away from one another over the 60+ minutes of action. Furthermore, Copp leads the team in expected goals differential (1.3 xGF compared to 0 goals scored) while DeBrincat is the best sniper in this lineup. Additionally, Detroit is a robust 4-for-10 with the man advantage to open the year.
Last season, Copp had one goal and three assists in three games against Pittsburgh while DeBrincat also scored once over three games (with Ottawa).
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The Penguins opened as a -128 favorite and have since been bet down to -125. I imagine the market has seen the same thing I have with these teams, and that Detroit’s 2-1 record has looked more impressive than Pittsburgh’s.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and remains at that number. Heavy juice is on the Over and I could see the market pushing this line to 7.0, and while I am not playing a total, you may want to take this line sooner rather than later if you are an Over bettor.
There have been nine or more total goals scored in four of the past five meetings between these two teams.
Detroit won two of the three meetings between these two teams clubs last year. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Red Wings.
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Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.
Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 – $500 per play.
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