The Rangers are a conundrum for sports bettors.
Most seasoned NHL handicappers lean heavily into 5-on-5 metrics to develop their power ratings, and by those numbers, the Blueshirts grade out as an above-average team this season. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Rangers boast the 12th-best expected goals rate and fourth-best high-danger scoring chance percentage at even strength.
New York’s defensive numbers are even stronger. No team concedes fewer high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than the Rangers, and only three teams boast a better expected goals against rating than the Blueshirts.
The goaltending has been superb, too. The Rangers lead the Eastern Conference with a .908 save percentage.
A team with that kind of defensive profile and goaltending should be towards the top of the standings, but the Rangers’ scoring woes are so profound that they were 12th in the Eastern Conference on the first day of December.
Part of the problem is personnel, but the Blueshirts also aren’t creating chances, likely because of their commitment to improving their defensive structure after a disastrous 2024-25 campaign.
More bad news on that front came on Sunday when Adam Fox, who is tied with Artemi Panarin for most points on the team (26), was placed on long-term injured reserve.
With Fox out of the lineup, the Rangers will need to lean into their defensive structure even more, especially against a team like the Dallas Stars, who rank third in the NHL in goals per game.
The Stars boast plenty of scoring punch, but they’re also quite comfortable playing in tight-checking contests thanks to their goaltending and defensive structure. Don’t be surprised if Tuesday’s game at Madison Square Garden gets stuck in first gear.
The Play: Under 5.5 (-108, BetRivers)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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