Cordell's Prediction: Expect a low-scoring affair in Carolina.
NHL
The Montreal Canadiens have really tightened the screws of late, with only the Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche allowing fewer goals over the past 10 games.
My Canadiens vs. Hurricanes predictions expect their improved defensive play and goaltending to serve them well on the road in Carolina.
Let’s dig deeper into my NHL picks for Thursday, January 1.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes best bet: Under 6.5 (-135)
The Montreal Canadiens have defended much better of late, particularly at 5-on-5. They rank 2nd in shot suppression over the past 10 games, and their ability to limit looks has predictably boosted their goal suppression numbers.
They have allowed an average of 2.4 goals against during that span, well below their season average of 3.26 goals per game.
It’s not just the defensive play that has made a difference. It’s also goaltending.
Rookie Jacob Fowler has performed very well since being recalled from Laval. He has started six games and helped the Canadiens pick up at least a point in five of them. That’s no coincidence.
Fowler has saved 5.2 goals above expectation, shaving off close to a goal per game from the opposing team’s deserved output.
That should serve him well against a Carolina Hurricanes team known to pile up xG in high volumes.
The Canadiens will also benefit from the absences of key players Seth Jarvis and Shayne Gostisbehere, who are tied for 2nd on the Hurricanes in points behind Sebastian Aho.
On the other side, Brandon Bussi is expected to start. He has lost only one of 15 decisions in regulation and ranks 6th among the 45 goaltenders with 15+ starts in goals saved above expectation per game.
Nick Suzuki averages 2.3 shots per game on the road while taking nearly 1.5 extra attempts per night. The Hurricanes are consistently an elite team at limiting shots, but that hasn’t stopped Suzuki from clearing this line in seven of his last nine against Carolina.
Noah Dobson has registered multiple shots in five of his last six and has played 24+ minutes in three straight games. He should see a ton of ice in a competitive matchup, giving him ample opportunity to fire a couple of pucks on net.
None of the past five head-to-head matchups have gone Over the total. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Hurricanes.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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