Our NHL picks expect Ottawa's trend of low-scoring games to continue against Utah at Canadian Tire Centre.
NHL
The Ottawa Senators are looking to sweep their weekend back-to-back as they host the Utah Hockey Club on Sunday evening.
The Sens took down the Maple Leafs 2-1 on Saturday night to continue their string of low-scoring games. Utah was off on Saturday after playing a back-to-back the two nights prior in Minnesota and Winnipeg.
Our top Hockey Club vs. Senators predictions are expecting another low-scoring affair in Ottawa in the best NHL picks for Sunday, January 26.
My Senators pick
Under 5.5 (+104 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators have consistently been one of the most profitable Under teams this season no matter who’s between the pipes. Some thought that might change when Linus Ullmark went down, but Anton Forsberg and Sunday’s projected starter, Leevi Merilainen, have held down the fort.
Merilainen is 6-3-1 with 21 goals allowed in 10 games (nine starts) this season with a .914 save percentage. Those numbers are even more impressive when you note that five of those goals came in one game against the Bruins last weekend. He’s allowed two goals or fewer in seven of 10 appearances, including two shutouts and two one-goal outings.
Ottawa’s offense has also dried up as of late with two goals or fewer in four straight games and six of its last seven.
The Sens have done a great job in front of their goalies, with the league’s eighth-best xGA/60 (2.29) at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick. That’s helped them to a 27-14-7 record to the Under, including 7-1-1 in the second half of a back-to-back and 6-2-1 when Merilainen starts.
Utah has also trended to the Under this season at 25-20-3, including a 4-0 shutout win for the Sens in the first meeting. Look for the Sens to keep this a low-event game as they’ve done in recent weeks.
The Senators are around -130 favorites as of late Saturday night despite being on the second half of a back-to-back. It doesn’t hurt that they’re 5-4 in that situation this season, while Utah is also a bit winded playing its third game in four days.
The total is set at 5.5 with plus-money odds on the Under 5.5. I don’t see this moving much higher, given the recent form for Ottawa’s offense and defense alike.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
The Ottawa Senators have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 87 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI) Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Utah.
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Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan’s hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.
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