Last Word On Hockey
NHL News, Analysis, History, Schedule, Rumors
It’s training camp and subsequently, fantasy hockey season. This article is a point projection for Erik Karlsson in the 2025-26 season. Few players are capable of sparking debate in this realm like Karlsson, a star defenceman whose offensive ceiling remain elite even if his overall game has trended downwards. Entering his third full season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Karlsson carries a high-risk, high-reward profile. Our projection model, looking at age curve, team context, games played and points-per-game rates.
At 35 years old, Erik Karlsson falls into a mid-decline range for offensive defenceman. As such, the model applies a 0.93 age modifier, reflecting a 7% reduction from peak production. It’s a drop-off seen with forwards and defencemen, recognizing the natural decline in mobility and consistency of an NHL player. For Karlsson, skating and vision remain his calling cards, so projecting point totals means tempering expectations while giving him credit where it is due.
Team environment also plays a critical role in production. This was seen in Karlsson’s relatively recent 101-point Norris Trophy season, where he was given an abundance of opportunity to produce with a bottom-feeding San Jose Sharks squad. The Penguins scored 2.95 goals per game at even strength last season, slightly below the league average of 3.01. However, this difference is more than made up for with the teams 25.8% power play. Compared to the league average of 21.5%, this power play offers a great deal of opportunity for Karlsson to rack up points. Our model weights 70% eve strength and 30% power play, producing a Team Index of 1.04 For Karlsson, this boost through the powerplay ensures his elite role in a strong man-advantage structure stabilizes his overall projection.
Durability is a pivotal factor in projecting Karlsson. Although he dealt with injury issues earlier in his career, he’s been incredibly healthy recently. For a player once plagued by injuries, three consecutive 82-game seasons is the best you can ask for. The model balances his own history with a league-wide baseline of 69 GP (The average for players appearing in 41 or more games last season) to avoid assuming perfect health.
Weighted average: 82 GP
After regression: 80 GP
Karlsson’s durability has been perfect the past three seasons, and the projection reflects this stability. While there is potential for injury at his age, the fact that he’s logged consecutive full seasons makes him a safer bet among veteran players.
The foundation of Karlsson’s projection lies in his scoring rate. Putting up points has been Erik Karlsson’s bread and butter throughout his career, leading to three Norris Trophy’s over the course of his career. Although his scoring his dipped slightly, it’s still at a relatively elite level.
Weighting the most recent season at 50%, two years back at 30%, and three years back at 20%, Karlsson’s baseline comes out to 0.76 PPG. After applying the 0.93 age modifier and 1.04 Team Index, his adjusted scoring rates settles in at 0.74 PPG. While far removed from his Norris-winning 101-point season, Karlsson’s ability to sit consistently in produce 50-60 points is rare for a defenceman. He may not lead the league in blueline scoring again, but he remains an elite option relative to his peers.
Putting it all together (age, team context, durability, and adjusted scoring rate), the model projects 59 points in 80 games for Erik Karlsson this season. That total accounts for steady, albeit unspectacular even-strength production from the Penguins paired with a heavy reliance on the top power play unit, which Karlsson will quarterback. This projection places Karlsson as a solid defensive option in a fantasy league valuing points, with Karlsson set to play with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and other Penguins stars.
Main Photo: Charles LeClaire- Imagn Images
Rohit is a Business Communications graduate from Brock University. He’s been watching and following the NHL since 2012. Although he is from Toronto, his favourite team has always been the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Share your thoughts and join the discussion
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.
Nov 22, 2025
Nov 22, 2025
Nov 22, 2025
Nov 22, 2025
Get the latest sports news and analysis delivered to your inbox.
Your ultimate destination for honest sports coverage, analysis, and breaking news since 2011.
Get the latest sports news delivered to your inbox.
© 2025 Last Word on Sports. All rights reserved.
Built with ♥ by LWOS Development Team
Hockey News