Things are going to get real from here on out in the NHL power rankings.
With the first month completed, we’re going to see which NHL teams are for real and which ones are the pretenders.
Remember, American Thanksgiving is just a few weeks away, and historically, it’s been a very good predictor of which teams will make the post-season. In a league with so much parity, banking points early can provide a cushion when the playoff races heat up in the final weeks of the season.
As with all previous seasons, there has been no shortage of surprises. The Penguins, for example, are surprisingly good, while the Blues have been surprisingly bad. In this week’s NHL power rankings, we take a look at which players and storylines have been the most surprising for each team.
1. Colorado Avalanche (8-1-5, +13. PR: 1)
For a team with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, it’s a little shocking they’ve lost three in overtime and twice in the shootout. Their only regulation loss came, surprisingly, against the Bruins, which nearly blew a 3-1 lead and were outshot 33-19. Locking up Martin Necas for eight years quickly was a smart move, and the Avs look poised to make another deep run.
2. Winnipeg Jets (9-4-0, +12. PR: 3)
It’s deja vu all over again. Excellent goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck and then relying on one line that can score. Perhaps the biggest surprise is how consistent the Jets have been and proving last season was no fluke despite lacking the depth that a lot of other elite teams possess.
3. Vegas Golden Knights (7-2-3, +8. PR: 4)
Over the past few seasons, the Knights have had one of the most productive bluelines in the league. So far this season, they’ve produced one goal, and you’ll never guess from who… (Kaedan Korczak)
4. Carolina Hurricanes (8-4-0, +12. PR: 6)
Pyotr Kochetkov returned and immediately shut out the Rangers – it’s not hard to do these days – but I think the biggest development has been Logan Stankoven locking down the second-line center spot behind Sebastian Aho. They’ve been looking forever and seem to have finally found someone they like.
5. Montreal Canadiens (9-3-1, +7. PR: 8)
Jakub Dobes has come out of nowhere to go 6-0-0 to start the season, and with Sam Montembeault getting tagged with four goals and another loss Tuesday against the Flyers, it could be Dobes’ net going forward. Another name: Nick Suzuki. At this point, it’d be a travesty if he were left off Team Canada.
6. Utah Mammoth (9-4-0, +9. PR: 9)
The Mammoth were a popular dark horse pick so I don’t think their success is all that surprising, but I didn’t expect their goaltending to be so solid. Karel Vejmelka has an .894 SP, but his quality start percentage is the highest of his career, per hockey-reference.com, and he has become reliable on a nightly basis.
7. New Jersey Devils (9-4-0, +6. PR: 2)
Aside from a brilliant performance from Jacob Markstrom against the Kings, the Devils looked pretty horrible on their four-game roadie, losing three games and allowing 17 goals (!) in those losses. No question, I think the biggest surprise has been Dawson Mercer, who hasn’t looked this good since his first two seasons after scoring just 69 points over the last two seasons.
8. Dallas Stars (7-3-3, -2. PR: 5)
The lack of scoring is a little perplexing. The Stars rank tied for 26th in goals-for per game and hired Glen Gulutzan away from the Oilers to improve their power play, which it has, but they’re also tied for last in goals-for at 5-on-5.
9. Anaheim Ducks (8-3-1, +11. PR: 15)
The Ducks rattled off three straight wins against some pretty tough teams over the past week and outscoring them 16-6, including a season sweep of the Panthers. They’re the biggest surprise in the West this season.
10. Detroit Red Wings (9-5-0, +2. PR: 7)
They toughed out a road trip with two shootout wins, including a bizarre game against the Kings where they were outshot, blew a lead, seemingly lost in overtime, only to get the call reversed. The biggest surprise is the pieces of the Yzerplan falling into place as the Wings hunt for a playoff spot.
11. Columbus Blue Jackets (7-5-0, +4. PR: 12)
The goaltending has been very good with Jet Greaves (.916 SP) and Elvis Merzlikins (.917 SP). We knew the Jackets could score (except on the power play), but for the longest time, they couldn’t get any stops consistently. Their record doesn’t look like much now, but don’t be surprised if they go on a run here. A few seasons ago, they couldn’t string two wins together.
12. Toronto Maple Leafs (7-5-1, even. PR: 14)
After ranking eighth in goals allowed per game last season, I thought the Leafs’ problem would be scoring, not defending. Anthony Stolarz’s .896 SP is misleading – he’s been their best player some nights – but I do think they miss Joseph Woll in a big way.
13. Pittsburgh Penguins (8-4-2, +9. PR: 10)
Pick one. The Pens have been the best feel-good story of the season so far, making one last push in the twilight of the Crosby-Malkin-Letang Era. I do think the biggest surprise, however, is rookie Ben Kindel, who was a bit of a surprise pick at No. 11 this past summer after being ranked 21st among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting.
14. Philadelphia Flyers (7-5-1, +3. PR: 17)
I think the Flyers have been better than anyone expected, but not because Matvei Michkov has emerged as their franchise player, with one goal in 13 games. We shouldn’t write them off too early, or even praise them too soon, because it does look like Dan Vladar is coming down to earth after a surprisingly strong start.
15. Los Angeles Kings (6-4-4, -4. PR: 19)
The Kings are 5-1-2 since their horrific start, joining a handful of teams that have managed to turn their season around in the first month. Kevin Fiala has 10 points in 14 games, dispelling previous notions about his slow starts.
16. Washington Capitals (6-5-1, +2. PR: 11)
That’s four straight losses and three games where they scored one goal or fewer. And they’re without Pierre-Luc Dubois for an extended period. Oof. It’s been interesting to see Tom Wilson playing arguably the best hockey of his career right now at 31 years old, especially for a player who plays such a taxing physical style and already has a lengthy injury history.
17. Edmonton Oilers (6-5-4, -2. PR: 13)
I think the most surprising thing, even before the season, was the Oilers’ decision to run it back with their current goaltending tandem. It can be good, but it’s not good enough very often, and we’re stuck asking the same questions over and over again.
18. Tampa Bay Lightning (6-5-2, +1. PR: 21)
This is definitely the Lightning we know. They’ve gone 5-1-0 after a rough first few weeks, with their only loss coming against the Avalanche. I’m surprised we even talk about the Lightning at all in the first month; they usually like to give the league a head start before showing in late November and December why they should still be feared.
19. Florida Panthers (6-6-1, -7. PR: 16)
Yes, the two-time defending Cup champions are ranked last in the East, though they’re not ranked as such in the NHL power rankings because we know how good they really are. However, Sam Bennett, who was supposed to fill a significant portion of the void left by Aleksander Barkov, has mostly been invisible, and their top scorer is 37-year-old Brad Marchand.
20. New York Rangers (6-6-2, -3. PR: 22)
This one’s easy: they can’t score. They’re shockingly 0-5-1 on home ice and were shut out again Tuesday against the Canes. At some point, they should turn it around; Artemi Panarin’s on an unsustainable cold streak, and their expected goals actually aren’t this bad.
21. Seattle Kraken (6-2-4, even. PR: 18)
A couple bounces, and the Kraken might be on a five-game winning streak, and the conversation would be different, but alas, they’re 3-2-2 in their last seven and 1-0-1 in a quiet week. Their scoring has been a nice surprise; this might be just the second time they’ve had at least two players score 60 points in the same season.
22. Chicago Blackhawks (5-5-3, +1. PR: 20)
I think the biggest compliment you can give the Hawks is that they’re competitive. In a season where almost every team has a points percentage above .500, the Hawks beating the likes of the Mammoth and Lightning, and hanging with the Oilers, Habs and Panthers, is a testament to how much they’ve improved. It’s especially surprising following a very quiet summer.
23. Minnesota Wild (5-6-3, -11. PR: 25)
The Wild have been a high-event but not-so-good defensive team for two seasons now, but the biggest difference this season has been the play of Filip Gustavsson. He’s got the bag, and now he has to prove it, and things have been slightly improved lately.
24. Vancouver Canucks (7-7-0, -5. PR: 23)
Kiefer Sherwood has become somewhat of a cult hero. It’s easy to forget that the record setter for hits in a single season was once known as a scorer; he scored 75 points in 57 games in the AHL one season and averaged 0.92 points per game in the AHL throughout his career. He’s clearly never going back.
25. Boston Bruins (8-7-0, -2. PR: 27)
They’ve been incredibly streaky, and Jeremy Swayman is either excellent or in danger of losing his job. He was given a partial pass last season after a contract holdout, but I think he’s very, very far from being a lock to be USA’s No. 3 goalie in February.
26. New York Islanders (6-5-2, -3. PR: 28)
The most surprising thing about the Isles this season is that they’re actually watchable. There’s an understanding that anyone who hurts a hair on Matthew Schaefer’s head is going to get mobbed, and they look far more energized and faster than ever.
27. St. Louis Blues (4-7-2, -16. PR: 24)
Considering how good they were under Jim Montgomery last season, this season has been a total disaster so far. They’re inconsistent, and their goaltending has been horrible; Jordan Binnington is not playing like he wants to be Canada’s No. 1 after a strong showing at the 4 Nations Faceoff.
28. Ottawa Senators (6-5-2, -3. PR: 26)
Tough to gauge the Sens without their captain, but Linus Ullmark has been really poor this season after a promising first season with his new club. He’s faced 30 or more shots only once (!) this season and allowed two goals or fewer just three times, and in one of those games, he faced only 13 shots.
29. Buffalo Sabres (5-4-4, -2. PR: 29)
Bad luck or just Sabres luck? They’ve played five straight games that went to extra time and lost four of them in overtime. Obviously, goaltending – what’s going to happen with Devon Levi? – and injuries have been hot topics, but I think the most surprising storyline that’s been developing over multiple seasons is how a club blessed with so much talent seem to attrition itself back into rebuild mode every decade or so.
30. San Jose Sharks (4-6-3, -11. PR: 31)
Take away the horrendous 0-4-2 start, and the Sharks are actually 4-2-1 since then, though three of those wins came in overtime. I think the surprise, albeit a mild one, is how quickly Macklin Celebrini has established himself as a dominant offensive player in the NHL.
31. Nashville Predators (5-6-4, -12. PR: 30)
The loser point skews things, but the Preds were lucky to earn half the points they did over the past week. They were down 3-1 against the Canucks, and Steven Stamkos scored with 0.3 seconds (!) left against the Wild to force overtime in both games. I think what’s most surprising is the Preds haven’t been mentioned much in the rumor mill, or very active in trying to fix this poorly constructed roster.
32. Calgary Flames (3-9-2, -17. PR: 32)
It’s a surprise that a borderline playoff team last season is this bad. Like, lottery-bound bad. A lot of it has been the Flames‘ subpar goaltending, but their offense hasn’t been good, and top defenseman MacKenzie Weegar is minus-12.
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