The Maple Leafs are looking for a get-right spot on offense, and our NHL picks think the Kraken serve up just the kind of opportunities their best goal-scorers can feast on.
NHL
We’ve got a busy NHL odds slate Thursday night, which includes a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Seattle Kraken.
Toronto’s goal-scoring has dried up lately, but perhaps a matchup against Seattle’s underperforming goaltending tandem is just what the offense needs to get back on track.
The betting markets suggest Toronto should find success offensively tonight, and I happen to agree with that assessment. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this November 30 matchup.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a wacky 2-1 shootout win over the Florida Panthers. The Seattle Kraken enter play on a two-game losing streak to Vancouver and Chicago.
In the short four-game history between these teams, the Maple Leafs are 3-1, outscoring the Kraken 18-12, with Toronto netting 5+ in three of the four games.
I expect that type of production to continue for Toronto tonight as well, which should allow it to go Over the team total of 3.5 goals.
Toronto has been snake-bitten of late, averaging just 2.8 goals per game over its last five games, despite having the fourth-best expected goals rate in the league (3.45 xG/60), according to Natural Stat Trick. If you dive deeper into numbers and extrapolate the 5-on-5 totals, the Leafs actually lead the NHL in that regard with 3.14 expected goals per 60. So, Toronto is due for an offensive eruption sometime soon, and perhaps a matchup against one of the worst goaltending tandems in the league could do the trick.
Enter the Seattle Kraken, who give up an average of 3.5 goals per game, ranking 26th in the NHL to go along with the fifth-worst team save percentage. They’ve also given up 4+ goals in three of their last four games to teams inferior to Toronto’s offensive potential.
Where the big edge for Toronto really comes into play is how poor Seattle’s goaltending has been this year in defending the goal against high-danger shots, ranking dead last with a .726 SV% in those situations. This bodes well for the Leafs offense, which has been unlucky offensively of late, despite averaging more high-danger shots per game than any other team in the NHL over their last five games (14.01).
That should have players like John Tavares and Auston Matthews salivating, as they rank first and second league-wide in high-danger shots on goal this season, according to NHL Edge.
Additionally, the Leafs power play is operating at a 24.7% success rate, which is good for seventh in the league. Now, Toronto has gone a few games without a goal on the man advantage, so it’s certainly due for one soon, and perhaps a meeting with the league’s 25th-ranked PK is just what the doctor ordered to make that happen and give the Leafs an additional goal or two toward the four we need for tonight.
My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-135 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs Over 3.5
Maple Leafs moneyline
Tavares anytime goal
For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll use my best bet with the Leafs to go Over the team total of 3.5 goals. The Kraken’s goaltending has been even worse than Toronto’s this season, and they have been giving up goals from the slot at an alarming rate. The Leafs have the fourth most high-danger shots in the NHL, with the Top 2 volume shooters in that category being Matthews and Tavares.
Speaking of Tavares, his propensity to get shots off in quality scoring chances should lead to a goal tonight. Take him to score an anytime goal as our second leg of the parlay. He hasn’t scored in four games, but he leads the NHL in high-danger shots this season (41). Therefore, with the Kraken having the worst high-danger save percentage in the NHL (.726), that should bode well for him as he looks to end his cold spell and put one in the back of the net.
Plus, without William Nylander on his wing, Tavares becomes the shooting threat on his line, and he’ll be taking feeds from Mitch Marner, who is one of the top slot passers in the NHL. That combo should come in handy against Kraken goalies who struggle against slot shots.
For my final leg, I like the Leafs on the moneyline. We’re already banking on the Leafs scoring 4+ goals tonight, and that should be enough to win on home ice against a team that struggles to generate offense and ranks 26th in goals per game (2.8).
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The Leafs enter tonight’s game as large favorites at -190 odds, while the Kraken come in as the +155 road dogs. Toronto is 3-1 on the money line through the four matchups between these two clubs in Seattle’s young tenure in the NHL. Each of those wins has been by a large margin too, outscoring the Kraken 17-7 in those meetings. Keep in mind also that the sharps are on the Leafs, with 80% of the handle making up just 69% of the total amount of bets.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5, with the books slightly favoring the Over at –115 odds as the Under checks in at -105. Of the four games these two have played since Seattle’s inception, two have gone Over and two have gone Under. However, both teams have struggled in net this season, and we’ve seen Over’s hit with regularity for both squads. This may be the reason why we’re seeing 71% of the bets and 80% of the handle come in on the Over.
The Over is 6-1-1 in the Kraken’s last eight road games and 5-1 in the Leafs’ last six home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Kraken vs. Maple Leafs.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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