John Tavares has been a consistent producer for the Leafs since he came to Toronto, but he's thrived the most next to Mitch Marner. With Marner poised to return tonight, our NHL picks expect Johnny T to have a big game.
NHL
We’ve got 11 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an all-Canadian clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens.
The NHL odds favor Toronto tonight with Mitch Marner returning to the lineup, but it’s his spot on the second line and what that could mean for John Tavares that intrigues me from a betting perspective for this game.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens on April 6.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens will clash for the final time this season tonight as the Habs host the Buds at the Bell Centre. The Leafs have won both matchups this season and have won four in a row against the Canadiens, outscoring them 21-9 in the process.
The big story of the night is the return of Leafs superstar Mitch Marner, who has been out of the lineup for 12 games with an ankle injury. However, it was intriguing to see him reunite with John Tavares in practice as opposed to being slotted back onto the top unit with Auston Matthews.
That said, this is great news for Tavares backers tonight, which I now happen to be.
It’s not a secret Tavares has always played his best Leafs hockey while playing alongside a top-tier playmaker like Marner. His first season in Toronto was with Marner on his wing, which saw Tavares score a career high 47 goals and 88 points.
Additionally, over the past three seasons, Tavares has averaged 4.26 points per 60 minutes when on the ice with Marner compared to 3.61 points per 60 minutes when skating alongside William Nylander. Thus, with this duo reunited, my best bet tonight is for the captain to get on the board and go Over his 0.5 points total tonight.
Tavares has been playing some good hockey lately too, collecting 13 points in his last 10 games. Additionally, the Leafs seem to have the Canadiens number when it comes to scoring goals.
Over the current four game winning streak against Montreal, Toronto has outscored the Habs 21-9, with Tavares factoring in on six of those goals. In fact, the Leafs captain has scored 10 points in his last eight games in total against the division rivals.
Heck, there’s even some value in Tavares recording a power play point at +270 if you want to take a little more of a riskier wager. With Marner returning to that top unit and Montreal’s middling 76% kill rate, I’m banking on a bit of a breakout after the Buds finally ended their PP cold streak against Tampa earlier in the week.
My best bet: Tavares Over 0.5 points (-140 at SIA)
Matthews anytime goal
Leafs team total Over 3.5
Leafs to score first
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll go with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. He needs seven goals in seven games to reach 70, and a goal or two tonight would go a long way. He’s torched the Habs throughout his career with 26 goals in 33 games, including a hat trick on opening night.
Next up, let’s lock in the Leafs going Over their total of 3.5 goals. Toronto has been an excellent offensive team on the road this season, averaging 3.57 goals per game. The Habs, on the other hand, have the sixth worst goals against average, allowing 3.37 goals per game. Plus, Marner should provide the Buds with a good boost at 5-on-5 and on the power play, which should enhance the goal scoring tonight.
For my final leg, I’ll take Toronto to score the first goal of the game. The Leafs haven’t played in a couple of days either and should be well rested and have some juice in the game. This has been a winning wager in 57% of Toronto games this year, and it’s been 8-4 since the trade deadline. Additionally, the Canadiens have surrendered the first goal in seven of their last 12 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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The Maple Leafs are 22-15 on the moneyline as the away side. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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