Jack Eichel’s shot volume is trending the wrong way, and Utah has been playing stingy defense for most of the season. That has Todd Cordell looking at the Under for Eichel's SOG prop.
NHL
The Vegas Golden Knights are one of the hottest teams in hockey. They’ve posted a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 games and have soared up the standings, now sitting tied for fifth in points.
However, my Golden Knights vs. Utah Hockey Club predictions and NHL picks see the home side taking a chunk out of Vegas and slowing down their best player in the process on Friday, November 15.
My best bet
Jack Eichel Under 3.5 shots on goal (+106 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Jack Eichel’s shot volume has fallen off a cliff this season, particularly on the road. He is averaging just 2.3 shots on goal and has cleared 3.5 shots only once in seven tries.
His lone hit away from Vegas came against the Anaheim Ducks, who are legitimately the worst shot suppression team in the NHL. Low-hanging fruit.
Even then, Eichel didn’t show much of a shooting ceiling. He attempted a road-high of six shots vs. the Ducks. He had attempted five shots or fewer in his previous six road dates.
Although the Utah Hockey Club are a middle-of-the-pack team, they are not a great matchup for Eichel to pile up the shots.
They rank 27th in pace and 14th in shot suppression at 5-on-5 this season. Put another way, they’re playing a pretty low-event brand of hockey and not giving up much volume on a nightly basis.
Utah has conceded 28 shots on goal or fewer in seven of their past 11 games. They’ve also given up 26 or fewer in four of seven home games thus far.
An added bonus would be the absence of Mark Stone. Bruce Cassidy recently moved Pavel Dorofeyev up to the top line in his place, taking away some of the shooting opportunities from Eichel.
We’re still dealing with small sample sizes but, dating back to last season, Eichel has averaged 9.01 shot attempts per 60 with Dorofeyev on his right wing as opposed to more than 16 with Stone.
Dorofeyev has a lethal shot and likes to use it. If Stone is out again, that’d be a welcomed boost.
Jack Eichel Under 3.5 shots on goal
Dylan Guenther Over 2.5 shots on goal
Utah Hockey Club +2.5
The Vegas Golden Knights are a quality team but it’s more the offense than the defense that’s been winning them games.
They have allowed a lot of shots, especially of late. The Golden Knights rank 28th in shots against at 5v5, and 25th on the penalty kill, over the past 10 games.
Dylan Guenther is one of the most efficient shot-generators in the NHL, ranking 17th in shot attempts per 60 minutes played.
He skates on the second line and top power play, meaning he should get ample opportunity to capitalize on Vegas’ inability to prevent shots. He certainly had no problem doing so in their previous meeting, recording a season high of nine shot attempts.
I like Utah on an alternate puck line to give the parlay a little more juice. Vegas has not fared nearly as well away from home ice — they are 2-3-2 on the road — and Utah has played teams tightly of late, picking up at least a point in five of their last seven.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Jack Eichel has failed to clear 3.5 shots on goal in six of seven road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Hockey Club.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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