Nathan MacKinnon tore it up in Game 1 vs. the Stars and we expect more of the same from the Avs superstar in Game 2.
NHL
The Dallas Stars are looking to even up the series as they host the Colorado Avalanche in Game 2 on Monday night.
My Avalanche vs. Stars picks are targeting Nathan MacKinnon to stay hot in the best NHL picks on Monday, April 21.
The Colorado Avalanche came away with a 5-1 victory in Game 1 over the Dallas Stars, but the game was much closer than the final score suggests.
At 5-on-5, the Avalanche did outshoot the Stars 18-13 but scoring chances were 18-16 and high-danger chances were tied at nine apiece. That resulted in nearly identical expected goals of 2.11 for Dallas and 2.09 for Colorado, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Stars went 28-10-3 at home this season while the Avalanche were just 23-17-1 on the road. Dallas also won the only home meeting in the regular season by a final score of 5-3 back on November 29.
The Avalanche are favored once again in Game 2, but I give the edge to the home underdogs to tie the series 1-1.
My Avalanche pick: Nathan MacKinnon 1+ assists (-140 at BET99)
Nathan MacKinnon put up 116 points (32 goals, 84 assists) in 79 regular-season games this year and picked up where he left off in Game 1. The Avalanche superstar picked up a primary assist on the opening goal and scored two goals of his own in Colorado’s 5-1 Game 1 victory.
And despite the Avs not necessarily deserving five goals in Game 1, the Stars have now allowed at least four goals in six straight games, including five or more in their last four.
Things might open up a bit in Game 2 with the Stars pushing for more offense, and even if they don’t, MacKinnon has the game-breaking ability to generate offense out of nowhere.
Finally, MacKinnon had an assist in 51 of 79 games this season. That includes all three matchups against the Stars.
Nathan MacKinnon 1+ assists
Martin Necas 1+ points
Stars moneyline
Martin Necas has fit like a glove on the Avalanche’s top line with MacKinnon. He had 28 points in 30 games with Colorado in the regular season, including a power-play goal against Dallas. He had an assist in Game 1 and should be in on the action again on Monday night.
We’re finishing this same-game parlay with a contrarian leg of the Stars to win the game. I discussed a bit why above, but this should be a longer series and there’s an outside chance that Miro Heiskanen returns soon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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The Dallas Stars have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 102 games (+9.80 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Stars.
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Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan’s hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.
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