Sometimes, the best part of the early NHL season is some surprise starts that you perhaps didn’t expect, good or bad. But how real are those starts? Let’s take a look at which teams may have a shot at remaining contenders and which ones may fall off as the season progresses.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the biggest surprises to begin the season, winning six of their first eight games and claiming third place in the Metropolitan Division. They haven’t had the most difficult schedule, which has probably helped a bit, but it doesn’t look like their 6-2-0 start will last.
While the Penguins are not devoid of talent—Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby can certainly still hang with the best of them—their five-on-five numbers have been rough to start the season. They have an expected goals share (xG%) of 48.99 percent, and that will likely drop some more as the season progresses and their level of competition toughens.
The Penguins’ play falling off might not be the worst thing, though. General manager Kyle Dubas has made it pretty clear that he’s taken the organization into rebuild mode, and with the strength of the 2026 draft class, their strong start being a mirage may pay off in the end.
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been the most surprising team to start the 2025-26 season, and not in a good way. They are 1-4-2 through their first seven games, and they haven’t exactly been getting unlucky. They have an xG% of 48.35 percent, ranked 21st in the NHL, and that number has actually improved over the last week.
There is definitely some concern about the Lightning’s start. It’s possible that this Lightning team is not as good as I thought before the season started and that Father Time is catching up to their core, but I still think this team has more than enough talent to dig out of this early hole they’ve dug themselves. It also helps that the Atlantic Division has been full chaos to start the season, so they should have an opportunity to get themselves back into the playoff picture.
The vibes around the Chicago Blackhawks have been pretty good to start the 2025-26 campaign. Connor Bedard looks like he’s ready for a significant step forward in his development, and Frank Nazar looks like he’ll have something to say in the Calder race. Unfortunately, I am here to ruin those vibes.
Related: NHL’s 2026 Free Agency Class Still Talented Despite Recent Extensions
It’s true that the Blackhawks have a bright future, but their 4-2-2 start sure looks like a mirage more than anything else. They have a 45.55 xG%, ranked 27th in the NHL, and their team shooting percentage of 12 percent seems unsustainable; only the New York Islanders have a higher team shooting percentage at five-on-five. I think the Blackhawks are trending in the right direction in their rebuild, but I’d expect them to trail off at some point.
Are the Calgary Flames as bad as their 1-7-1 record indicates? It’s complicated, but they might not be. They have an xG% of 53.48 percent through their first nine games, a top-10 rate in the NHL, so what’s gone wrong? The Flames are shooting just 5.41 percent at five-on-five, the second-lowest shooting percentage in the NHL.
The question is, are they generating enough offense to get themselves out of this rut? They’re averaging 2.54 expected goals per 60 minutes, so it feels like they should be scoring more than they are. Perhaps they are due for better luck, but it needs to turn around soon because it’s already getting late early in Calgary.
As of this writing, the Montreal Canadiens hold first place in the Atlantic Division. But as mentioned above with the Lightning, there’s been some chaos in the Atlantic to start the season. The Florida Panthers are 4-5-0, and the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, two playoff teams a season ago, are off to slow starts, too.
Still, there’s probably a degree of legitimacy to the Canadiens’ start. It’s still early in the season, but they are showing some improvement at five-on-five compared to 2024-25. They have a 50.2 xG%, so if they can hover around there for most of the season, they should remain in playoff contention. I don’t see them holding onto first place, but they might have a better shot at a playoff spot than I thought heading into the season.
Matthew Schaefer, the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, is off to an incredible start to his career. He’s a significant reason why the New York Islanders have gotten off to a 4-3-0 record, but the team might be finding some early success due to luck more than anything else.
The Islanders have an xG% of 43.65 percent at five-on-five and the highest shooting percentage in the NHL at that game state. Generally, that’s a good combo for regression. The Islanders don’t strike me as a team that’ll have the best odds for Gavin McKenna, but they’ll likely level out and finish in the 80-82 point range that most preseason projections had them in.
Is this finally the year the Yzerplan breaks the long playoff drought in Detroit? The Red Wings got off to a similar 5-1-0 start last season but ended up missing the playoffs by a few points. They’re 5-3-0 and just two points behind the Canadiens for first in the Atlantic, but will they actually remain in contention for a top-three spot in the division all season?
At least early on, this Red Wings team has posted some encouraging five-on-five numbers. They have a 51.33 xG% through eight games, which is better than any rate they posted at any point last season. Todd McLellan is a good coach and may be the right person to guide the Red Wings into the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. They may end up being more of a bubble team rather than competing for first in the division, but there are definitely some signs of hope in Detroit.
I’ve been buying Utah Mammoth stock since the summer, and so far, I’m feeling pretty good about how they’ve started the 2025-26 season. They’re 6-2-0 and sit 10th in the NHL in xG% at 51.45 percent. Logan Cooley recently totaled four points in seven minutes of a period, and there is plenty of other young talent around him in Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, and JJ Peterka.
The Central Division is ultra-competitive, and that’s with the Dallas Stars not yet kicking into high gear. But even then, I like the Mammoth’s chances of sticking around and competing for a playoff spot. I’d be surprised if they trailed off and weren’t competing for a postseason berth come April.
It’s early in the season, but some of these surprise teams already have some warning signs, while others seem to be heading in the right direction. Time will tell who’s ultimately left standing come the playoffs.
Advanced stats from MoneyPuck
Founded in 2009, and 100% Canadian-owned, The Hockey Writers is a premier destination for news and information on everything hockey. Updated hourly, with analysis, commentary and features from hundreds writers worldwide, our articles are read millions of times every month.