Despite clearing his SOG prop in three straight, we're still getting plus money on Matthew Knies to clear 2.5 shots vs. the Rangers.
NHL
We’ve got 11 games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers.
The Leafs are averaging 34 shots over their last two games. Matthew Knies has three SOG in each, yet is still paying +145 to hit that number again.
Find out why my Rangers vs. Maple Leafs predictions and free NHL picks are hitting the Over on Knies’ shot prop on Thursday, October 16.
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Rangers vs Maple Leafs Best bet: Matthew Knies Over 2.5 shots on goal (+145)
The Toronto Maple Leafs aim to pick up where they left off after crushing the Nashville Predators 7-4 on Tuesday. The Leafs had six different goal scorers as the team’s offense finally arrived.
However, Igor Shesterkin is a far tougher challenge than Preds backup Justice Annunen. The New York Rangers goalie has a remarkable .972 SV% and a 0.76 GAA in four starts this season.
So, the Maple Leafs better shoot everything they can on goal and get shots from those dirty areas if they’re going to beat Shesterkin.
Enter Matthew Knies.
He’s arguably been the best Maple Leafs forward this season with his ability and willingness to work in tight. That work ethic should give him ample opportunity to get shots off toward the goal or pounce on rebounds around the net.
He’s gone Over his posted total of 2.5 shots in three straight games, yet somehow is paying +145 to go over the number again.
That’s just too juicy of value to give up, considering Knies has a 75% hit rate on this prop market while playing on the Leafs’ top line and #1 power play unit.
I’ll take Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz to go Over 23.5 saves. The Leafs have allowed an average of 27.5 shots on goal per game, while the Rangers, despite being under .500, are averaging 30+. They’ve been snakebitten, though, with New York averaging just 1.4 goals per year.
I’m also backing John Tavares to record a point. He finally broke through with a three-point performance in the win over Nashville and has typically torched the Rangers throughout his career, with 53 points in 60 games against them.
The Leafs are 6-2 on the moneyline in the last eight meetings against the Rangers. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Maple Leafs.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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