The Oilers are heavy home favorites vs. a Kraken team that's looked downright awful in the advanced metrics lately. Our NHL betting picks expect Edmonton to make a statement on Monday night with Connor McDavid returning to the lineup.
NHL
The Edmonton Oilers won two of three without superstar Connor McDavid, and No. 97 is back from his three-game ban for tonight’s tilt against the visiting Seattle Kraken at Rogers Place.
With six games before the pause for the 4 Nations Face-Off, and Edmonton cruising along an extended 25-8-2 heater, my top Oilers vs. Kraken predictions and NHL picks expect McDavid and the Oil to add another statement tally in the wins column on Monday, January 27.
My Oilers pick
Oilers -1.5 (-120 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
Not only are the Edmonton Oilers rolling along the noted 25-8-2 stretch, they’re also 15-3 at home during the heater, and No. 1 goalie Stuart Skinner has tidied up his game.
Skinner sports a 16-6-2 record with a .908 SV% and 2.48 GAA. With Edmonton ranking third with 3.72 goals per game during the run, it’s been a winning formula for the Oil.
The Oilers have also been solid defensively in front of Skinner dating back to the beginning of the run in mid-November, and they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.24) while ranking third with an 85.1 penalty-kill percentage.
There’s also a huge gap in the underlying 5-on-5 numbers between the Oil and the Seattle Kraken since the holiday break.
Seattle has shown well in the standings with a respectable 7-6-1 record, but the Kraken have caved in with a 28th-ranked 44.3 Corsi For percentage, and the Kraken have also lost the expected-goals battle — big time — with a 30th-ranked 41.2%.
The special teams haven’t impressed, either, with the Kraken ranking 20th with a 20% power-play percentage and 30th with a 66.7 PK%.
For comparison, Edmonton respectively sports a fourth-ranked 54.9 CF% and top-ranked 58.9 xGF% since the holiday pause, and the Oilers have also shown off with a seventh-ranked 32.4 PP% and 10th-ranked 81.3 PK%.
I expect the statistical mismatch to play out on the ice and the scoreboard at Rogers Place tonight.
Oilers -1.5
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 shots on goal
Oilers superstar Connor McDavid and the entire organization had a lot to say about his three-game suspension, and I’m anticipating it serving as a bit of a spark plug for No. 97 and the Edmonton offense tonight and leading into the 4 Nations Face-Off.
McDavid has two or more points in 20 of 43 games this season, and he’s also piled up 35 points across 22 home games for the campaign. As highlighted, there’s nothing scary about the visiting Seattle defense, either.
Turning to Edmonton’s other star, Leon Draisaitl is a player I consistently target in the shots market because he’s registered three or more in 16 of his past 22 games. This matchup also checks out with Seattle’s noted possession shortcomings, in addition to Draisaitl sporting a high-end 58.9 CF% at 5-on-5.
Of course, Draisaitl is also a go-to shooter with the man advantage with a team-high 36 shots on the PP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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The Oilers have hit the moneyline in 37 of their last 56 games at home (+4.75 Units / 4% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Kraken.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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