Neither the Red Wings nor Sabres have done much winning of late, but there are no ties (anymore) in hockey so someone's coming away with the win. Our NHL picks like Buffalo on home ice, especially with Detroit's goaltenders on the shelf.
NHL
The Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings will square off tonight at the KeyBank Center in a battle between two of the coldest teams in the NHL.
Buffalo enters play having dropped six games in a row while Detroit has lost five straight — each by a single goal.
My Red Wings vs. Sabres predictions expect the home team, even without Rasmus Dahlin, to get back on track with a much-needed victory.
Let’s take a closer look at my Monday, December 9 NHL picks ahead of the 7 p.m. ET puck drop.
My best bet
Sabres moneyline (-127 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Buffalo Sabres clawed their way up the standings following a slow start to the season, only to drop six consecutive games and fall back out of a playoff spot.
However, I like their chances of righting the ship against a Detroit Red Wings team mired in an ugly slump of their own.
The Sabres have actually played solid hockey on home ice. They are tied for sixth in 5-on-5 goals (34) and have controlled 55.30% of the high-danger chance share, good for seventh in the NHL.
It hasn’t led to great results — the Sabres are 6-8-2 at home — but that has more to do with .882 goaltending than red flags in their overall level of play.
The Red Wings are a dream opponent for a team being held back by goaltending. They are averaging just 2.48 goals per game (29th) and rank 31st in shots. They shouldn’t cause many headaches for Buffalo’s starter.
On the flip side, this is a matchup where the Sabres’ attack should do damage. They have threatened at 5-on-5 of late, ranking ninth in shots and fifth in expected goals over the last 10 games.
They are generating shots and chances in bulk. That should continue against a Red Wings team that ranks 28th in shot suppression and shot share, during the same period. They spend a lot of time on their heels in the defensive zone.
Detroit will likely need a quality goaltending performance to have a real chance in this game. Coming up with one will be easier said than done with the team’s top two goaltenders, Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon, sidelined with injuries.
The Red Wings will be forced to turn to Ville Husso (.884 save percentage this season) or Sebastian Cossa, who has yet to make an NHL start, against the Sabres
Sabres moneyline
Tage Thompson Over 0.5 points
Alex Tuch Over 0.5 points
Tage Thompson is a certified Red Wings killer, hitting the scoresheet in nine of his last 11 games against the Atlantic Division rivals while totaling a ridiculous 18 points in that span. Yes, 18.
Thompson’s shot rates are noticeably higher on home ice, where he averages 3.9 per game compared to 2.6 on the road.
Lindy Ruff can get Thompson more minutes away from Detroit’s top pairing of Simon Edvinsson and Moritz Seider, which is important.
Thompson will also have the luxury of avoiding both of the Red Wings’ regular goaltenders, who’ve each played very well this season.
I love adding Alex Tuch to the mix as a correlation play. He has points in five of his last six games against Detroit and shares the ice with Thompson at 5-on-5 and on the power play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tage Thompson has six points over his last three home games against Detroit. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Sabres.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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